Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Can Luka Lead Late-Season Push?

We are truly in the fading days of the 2022-23 NBA season, and yet so much remains undecided in the standings.

With a packed seven-game slate tonight, we do our best to gauge the contexts and relative team incentives that will impact betting on Friday, April 7. 

Our three favorite NBA player prop picks feature CJ McCollum struggling against the Knicks defensive guards, Killian Hayes’ shooting slump, and what may be Luka Doncic’s last stand.

NBA player props for April 7

• McCollum Over 2.5 turnovers (+130)
• Hayes Under 0.5 made threes (+140)
• Doncic Over 29.5 points (-120)

Picks made on 4/7/2023 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

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McCollum mishap

The New Orleans Pelicans come into Friday’s action having secured a guaranteed play-in berth, but they still could finish as high as fifth in the Western Conference if they win out and things break their way. Their first test comes against the New York Knicks, who are locked into their first-round matchup against the Cavs.

The Knicks might not have anything to play for in the standings, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be a pain for CJ McCollum and the Pelicans to play.

While one would expect Jalen Brunson to keep resting his sprained wrist, the Knicks' second-string unit romped to a big victory over the Pacers on Wednesday despite having nothing left to play for. They were led by standout performances from Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes, who in addition to being quality offensive players, are outstanding on defense.

And importantly, the Knicks' defensive depth at guard means even if Tom Thibodeau turns over a new leaf and decides to give Quickley or Grimes a long rest in the second half, that more than likely means more minutes for Deuce McBride.

While McBride is the most offensively-limited player of the trio, he’s pound-for-pound the most rugged and physical defender of the bunch. His strength and anticipation are a nightmare combination for a player like CJ who has a few miles on the odometer at this point in his career.

CJ has also seen a notable uptick in turnovers this season. His 10.9% turnover rate is the highest he’s had since the 2015-16 season, per Cleaning the Glass.

CJ McCollum prop: Over 2.5 turnovers (+130 at 888sport)

Pistons backfire

This has been a season to forget for the Detroit Pistons. Not only did they lose franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham early in the year due to a lingering shin issue, but a team that was projected by some to make a push for a play-in spot is now locked into finishing the season with by far the worst record in the NBA.

On the bright side, rookie guard Jaden Ivey turned in a promising first campaign and seems destined for All-Rookie team honors, but Ivey’s success has somewhat overshadowed just how poorly Detroit’s 2020 point guard draft pick Killian Hayes has played this season.

After being taken with the seventh pick overall, Hayes was naturally viewed as the first brick in the era of remodeling promised by Detroit GM Troy Weaver. A hip injury made evaluating his rookie season a difficult prospect, but now in Year 3, the results are not promising.

While Hayes has become a solid defensive presence, he was drafted for the potential diversity of his jump shot. Flatly put, the jumper has not translated to the NBA.

Hayes has been one of the worst perimeter shooters in the NBA for the duration of his career, and his recent stretch has been no better. Hayes has a frightful 44.6% true shooting on the year, as well as 27.3% from downtown. 

Over his last 17 games, Killian has failed to hit a three in all but six of them, and he’s shooting well below 20% from downtown over that stretch.

It’s always a risk to bet against a player to hit a single three in any one game, particularly a player like Hayes who gets substantial minutes, but the significant plus-money value here for something that has been approximately a 60% or higher outcome is too good to pass up.

Killian Hayes prop: Under 0.5 made threes (+140 at 888sport)

Desperation Doncic

The Dallas Mavericks finally showed some heart in their thrilling win over the Kings on Wednesday night. Whether it ends up being too little too late or not, Luka Doncic has come out and said that he intends to play the season out and strive to win as long as the Mavs have any statistical chance of making the postseason.

With OKC beating the Jazz last night, the NBA odds of the Mavericks making the play-in dropped a lot, but they still have a shot if Doncic can lead his team to two more victories. With Dallas’ final two games coming against the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs, there's a shot.

Friday’s game against Chicago is the first hurdle. The Bulls are one of the teams locked into playoff seeding, and they’re also a team laden with veterans (or players with the injury histories of veterans) who should lean strongly toward stealing the extra rest.

They’ll be keen for whatever respite they can get before the play-in tournament begins, so expect a skeleton crew of unfamiliar faces to be squaring off against Doncic.

The big reason to bet on the Slovenian prodigy then is that teams with mismatched casts of characters consistently struggle with fouling too much. Doncic is in the 98th percentile for foul drawing among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass, earning a jaw-dropping 10.6 trips to the line per game.

Against a disjointed opponent and with the season on the line, I’m expecting Luka’s best on Friday.

Luka Doncic prop: Over 29.5 points (-120 at 888sport)

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