Best NBA Player Props Today: Murray's Range Stays Muted on Monday

Prop bet #1: Wemby at the five

Victor Wembanyama recently broke the record for the youngest player in NBA history to record a 20-point, 20-rebound game, but the 20-20 game isn’t even close to the most significant thing that’s happened to the San Antonio Spurs in the last week.

That honor belongs to the starting lineup change that Greg Popovic made. Spurred on by the grisly losing streak that has since topped 16 in a row, Pop shifted Zach Collins to the bench and elevated Victor to the position of full-on starting center. The 20-20 game was a symptom of that move and I believe it suggests Wemby is in for several dominant rebounding games in the near future.

Wemby generates a ton of rebounds that almost nobody else can just because of his size, but he wasn’t always getting gaudy totals because the system rebounds largely went to Collins or another Spurs center. The game against the Bulls when he had 20 was a product of no other Spur competing with Wemby on the defensive glass.

That 20-20 game becomes more impressive when you realize that many of those contested rebounds came against Andre Drummond. Drummond is far from his All-Star peak, but he’s still one of the most singularly dominant rebounding forces the NBA has seen over the last decade plus.

Watching him beat Drummond for many of those boards was instructive. Wemby’s length and flexibility allow him to contest rebounds where he doesn’t have inside position but without committing the dreaded “over the back” foul. 

He simply extends his arms from behind the opposing center out and above their outstretched hands and is long enough to avoid any illegal body contact in the process. The only way to beat him is to have two bigs and one whose mission in life is to box him out of the picture entirely.

The Houston Rockets are like the Bulls in that they prioritize getting back in transition defense over working the offensive glass. Wemby should get nearly 10 rebounds on the defensive end by default in this one.

So far, the Victor Wembanyama odds haven’t adjusted to his new role as San Antonio’s starting center, but I don’t expect that to last much longer.

Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-105 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: Mixed Murray

The Sacramento Kings are a good team. That’s a huge step from where they were the past two decades, but it’s also not where they hope to go. To get to true contention, they need another high-level player, and many think that second-year player Keegan Murray is their best chance of getting there.

Mike Brown himself went as far as to dub the 6-foot-8 forward from Iowa the future third star that would pair with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox and elevate the Kings to contender status.

But as we’ve seen so many times before, development in the NBA isn’t linear, not even when you’re starting with an older and theoretically more advanced prospect like Murray was. So while Murray had an outstanding first season, he's had difficulty replicating his offensive impact this year.

Largely, that’s because his load-bearing skill, perimeter shooting, has dropped off substantially. Murray made 206 threes as a rook and hit them at a scorching 41.1% clip, and they weren’t all simply him spotting up in the corner either. 

Like the team’s other sharpshooter Kevin Huerter, a lot of Keegan's makes came out of the two-man dribble handoff action with Sabonis, and those shots are not as easy as simply hoisting it off a kick to the corner.

But the shot has just not been there this season, and as has been the case for a lot of young players experiencing their first real adversity, it’s been a struggle for Murray. He’s down to just 29.8% from deep. 

Keegan has only hit 3+ triples in one of his last seven games, when he went 4-8 against the Pelicans on December 4. It looked like that might be a breakthrough performance, but then he promptly followed it up with a 1-7 outing against the Suns next time out.

While I would still bet on him being a good shooter long-term, I’m still taking the Under on these Keegan Murray odds on Monday.

Keegan Murray prop: Under 2.5 threes (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: New York's finest

Nobody is ever going to mistake Jalen Brunson for a traditional point guard, at least not when we think about what the word meant before Stephen Curry revolutionized the position about a decade ago.

After all, he doesn’t even lead the New York Knicks in assists despite his ball-dominant play style. His assist-to-usage ratio places him in the 24th percentile among point guards per Cleaning the Glass.

But that also makes the improvements he does make on the margins that much more meaningful. Brunson is always a threat to score with the ball, at the rim, from floater range, in the post, and increasingly from a few steps behind the arc. 

He consistently draws so much attention and forces so much help that he doesn’t need to have elite size or vision to create quality looks for his teammates. He makes the game simple for himself as a facilitator precisely because he’s such a multifaceted scorer.

To begin the season, Brunson was a touch on the shot-happy side, particularly given his struggles finishing anything inside the arc, but as his interior scoring has stabilized, he’s weaponizing that scoring gravity with a better balance of playmaking to shot-taking as well.

I don’t think that OG Anunoby or Scottie Barnes’ length will be an issue for Jalen on Monday either. He tallied eight against the Raptors in Toronto on December 1 and he hit a few super deep threes in that game that forced their coverage higher on the floor. By spreading a defense out like that, the passes get easier.

Brunson is averaging 6.4 assists over his last 10 games and has had 6+ assists in eight of those 10. I believe the Jalen Brunson odds are too low on his mini-passing leap.

Jalen Brunson prop: Over 5.5 assists (-105 at SIA)