Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Paolo Banchero Does it All

We’re in the strange calendar limbo between Christmas Day and New Year's Eve, but the NBA world never sleeps. There’s a full 10-game slate on the board tonight and we’ve scoured them all to find the best value bets.

Our three favorite NBA player prop bets for tonight’s action feature the presumptive Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, Nikola Jokic making his case for a third MVP, and Klay Thompson finding success at home. 

NBA player props for December 27

• Banchero Over 30.5 points, rebounds, assists (-117)
• Jokic Over 36.5 points and assists (-105)
• Thompson Over 22.5 points (-115)

Picks made on 12/27/2022 at 12:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Paolo is a problem

The season may be less than half over, but the Rookie of the Year race is dead and buried. That’s because Paolo Banchero, rookie forward for the Orlando Magic and No.1 overall pick, has lapped the field in terms of production, efficiency, and consistency.

Paolo has a remarkably developed frame for one so young, and at 19 he regularly plays bully ball to work his way right to the basket and finish. But what really separates Paolo from other players his size is his playmaking. 

Banchero is already a highly-skilled passer, and at 6-foot-10 he can function as an offensive hub from the top of the key or initiate the pick-and-roll. His 18.8% assist percentage is in the 91st percentile among all forwards per Cleaning the Glass, a truly remarkable grade for any rookie.

The power of having two forwards in Banchero and Franz Wagner who can initiate, pop, or roll out of the pick-and-roll is going to the offensive foundation of the Magic long term? — and it’s already pretty good now.

tufff

18 PTS through three quarters for @Pp_doesit pic.twitter.com/eDFlhxQVmC

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) December 24, 2022

This bet is as much about Paolo’s productivity as it is about the Los Angeles Lakers' futility. Outside of LeBron James, the Lakers don’t have any capable forwards on the roster, and even LeBron’s defensive intensity waxes and wanes these days as losses continue to pile up. It’s why you saw them guarding Luka Doncic with Patrick Beverley on Christmas Day... they simply don’t have big wing-size players. 

The bigs the Lakers do have will get torched by a player of Paolo’s dexterity and skill. Banchero is averaging a total of 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists per game this season. Getting this line at 30.5 is a steal against this competition.

Paolo Banchero Prop: Over 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-117)

MV-Three-Peat?

Larry Bird. Wilt Chamberlain. Bill Russell.

Nikola Jokic?

If that group sounds funny to your ears, you might want to start getting used to the idea of rattling off those four names together. As of right now, Bird, Wilt, and Russell are the only players in NBA history to win three straight MVP trophies. But having racked up two in a row, Jokic might be on his way to capturing the ever-elusive third consecutive MVP that’s evaded greats from Michael Jordan to LeBron James.

Christmas Day was another showcase for Jokic, who posted a ho-hum 41 points, 15 rebounds, and 15 assists on 16-15 from the field. He’s the most casually dominant great ever and has long claimed the undisputed moniker of the greatest passing big man of all time (with apologies to Arvydas Sabonis).

Joker, master of all buckets ???? pic.twitter.com/jcSM8Qca0O

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) December 26, 2022

His 32.3 PER this season is second all-time in the Basketball Reference database, trailing only (wait for it) himself from last season. There are fewer than five teams who can truly slow him down. And the Sacramento Kings, for all their virtues this year, are not among them.

Domantas Sabonis recently suffered a significant thumb injury that might make him reluctant to bang bodies with Jokic down low, not that he’s had much success hanging with the Serbian big man in previous encounters. The Joker has consistently exceeded his career averages against Sabonis, who, while a wonderful player in his own right, is inferior to Jokic in every respect.

Jokic will draw doubles against the Kings because they have no credible one-on-one matchup. When they come over, he’ll find Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, or Bruce Brown cutting, as he does consistently every night. Jokic is averaging 41.1 points and assists in his previous 10 games, making a 36.5 line great value.

Nikola Jokic Prop: Over 36.5 points and assists (-105)

Klay day

It’s a fact of life in the NBA: role players shoot better at home. If there is one trait that consistently separates the stars from the “very goods,” it's that stars don’t let the bumps and disruptions of life on the road prevent them from performing. So it’s not surprising that some of the Golden State Warriors are struggling so much on the road this season, but in Klay Thompson’s case, it is a bit puzzling.

Arguably the most famous shooting stretch of Thompson’s career, Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2016 playoffs, came on the road. He also set the record for most points in a quarter, 37, on the road against the Sacramento Kings. This year, however, he’s struggling like every Warrior not named Steph Curry away from Chase Center.

While I would never call Klay a role player, his splits have become more similar to one since his injury. Managing his injury and rehab between games is probably more difficult on the road than when he’s safely ensconced in the Bay. Whatever the reason, the splits are stark. 

He’s averaging 20.8 points per game over his last 10, but 28 ppg during the four games at home in that stretch. With Charlotte on the wrong end of a back-to-back, I’m expecting Klay to get a lot of quality looks and cash them in at a high clip.

Klay Thompson Prop: Over 22.5 points (-115)

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