After a slow week, the Houston Rockets are positioned to bounce back against a Los Angeles Lakers squad that’s defense has been an issue throughout the year.
With Houston’s ability to lean on its defense, it’s the more well-rounded squad in this West Coast showdown. With Alperen Sengun anchoring its defense, I expect Houston to get back on track in my Lakers vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, January 5.
Lakers vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Rockets -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Despite the Los Angeles Lakers sitting fourth in the West, there are clear concerns about the team’s defense this season. It’s just 21st in defensive rating (115.2) and allowing 113.7 points per game this season.
While LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been able to make up for it on the offensive end, the Rockets’ defense is far too talented. It’s allowing the third-fewest points per game in the Association (106.4) and sits second in defensive rating (106.8).
Ime Udoka’s team offers a particularly difficult matchup for the Lakers, with L.A. leaning so heavily on its inside game. The Lakers shoot the third-fewest threes per game this season (33.6), making this offense one-dimensional.
That will help Sengun, Dillon Brooks, and Amen Thompson to focus solely on slowing James and Davis around the rim. Houston is allowing the lowest 2-point percentage in the NBA (49.8%) and the fourth-fewest twos (26.5).
With the Lakers taking such few shots from behind the arc, it should allow Houston to have a massive advantage on the defensive end. With that side of the court taken care of, Jalen Green and Sengun are talented enough to expose L.A.’s defense.
The young duo is averaging a combined 38.5 points per game this season and can threaten a Lakers defense that’s allowing the fifth-most twos per game (29.5). While L.A.’s perimeter defense has been strong, the Houston Rockets lean heavily on their inside scoring — hitting the ninth-most twos per game (29.5) — and making them a difficult matchup for JJ Redick’s Lakers.
The specificity of this matchup advantage for Houston should allow it to cover for the 21st time this season.
Lakers vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets -4.5
Jalen Green Over 19.5 points
LeBron James Over 7.5 assists
Green is a perfect player to pop off against the Lakers. The 22-year-old may struggle from deep, but he’s an ace inside the arc. He’s averaging 19.6 points per game this season and is coming off a 22-point performance against the Mavericks and a 27-point outing against the Celtics.
He’s now scored 20+ in 16 of 34 games this season, and the Lakers' shaky mid-range defense should have Green licking his lips about the matchup. At the same time, James will get his, even against one of the league’s top defenses.
The 40-year-old is fourth in the NBA in assists per game this season (8.9) and has gone Over 7.5 in four of his last five games. He’s already had 8+ assists in 20 of 31 games this season (64.5%) and shouldn’t have any trouble getting there again, even in a loss.
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Lakers vs Rockets odds
Lakers vs Rockets live odds
Lakers vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +5 | Houston -5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +175 | Houston -210
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Lakers vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets opened as 5-point home favorites, and the line has seen minimal movement leading up to tip, with most books offering Houston -4.5.
- Houston is among the best teams in the NBA ATS this season at 20-14-1, while the Lakers are 17-17.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 221.5 but has slowly dropped down to 218.5.
- The Rockets are just 16-17-1 betting the Over this season, and the Lakers are even worse at 15-19.
Lakers vs Rockets trend
The Rockets have covered the spread in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.90 units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Rockets.
How to watch Lakers vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SPECSN, SCHN, NBAC |
Lakers vs Rockets latest injuries
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