Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Banchero Stuffs Sheet Against Pistons

It’s a solid night of NBA action with eight games on the board for hungry NBA bettors to dive into. So, I’ve got a late Christmas gift for you courtesy of the value in the NBA player props market.

Speaking of value, there is a Paolo Banchero prop with a price that is an absolute gift when the Magic take on the Pistons. Ben Simmons will keep contributing for the streaking Nets, and the Pelicans' Trey Murphy continues to make the most out of the opportunity to start in the absence of Brandon Ingram.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, December 28.

NBA player props for December 28

• Banchero double-double
• Simmons Over 16.5 pts + rebs
• Murphy Over 2.5 made 3s

Picks made on 12/28/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Banking on Banchero

It feels like with each passing game, Paolo Banchero widens the gap between himself and his peers when it comes to the NBA Rookie of the Year race, and he could be in for another big night when his Orlando Magic visit the Detroit Pistons.

At this point, it looks like the Magic made the slam dunk correct choice taking Banchero No. 1 overall in the last NBA Draft. Banchero has done it all for the Magic, averaging 21.1 points per game while shooting 44.5% from the floor. He is also averaging 6.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game.

That versatility has allowed Banchero to record six double-doubles, and while that may not seem like a lot, at a +675 value he is worth a shot to record lucky number seven against Detroit.

For starters, the Pistons are a bad defensive team. They rank second-to-last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating and 28th in opponent field goal percentage. Detroit also struggles on the glass, ranking 16th in rebounding rate and 25th in opponent rpg.

And in the only other meeting against the Pistons this season, which was the season opener back on Oct. 19, Banchero went for 27 points and nine boards, missing out on a double-double by one rebound. The value in the matchup here is too good to pass up.

Paolo Banchero Prop: To record a double-double (+675)

Big Ben

The Brooklyn Nets are finally starting to reach the potential so many envisioned for this team. They have won nine games in a row and seen their NBA championship odds climb to the +600 range heading into tonight’s matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.

The Nets have an MVP candidate in Kevin Durant, they have shooters, they have depth, and they have a great switching defense. Even Ben Simmons is finding his footing.

For this matchup against the Hawks, we’re going to focus on Simmons. While Simmons still probably doesn’t take as many shots as the Nets would like, he is contributing like the old Ben Simmons and should be a matchup problem for an undersized Hawks team.

Simmons is averaging 8.3, points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game this season, but he’s put in a little more work on the glass of late — hauling down 7.5 rebounds per contest over his last six games. 

Even with John Collins and Clint Capela back, this is a team that struggles on the inside and on the glass. The Hawks rank 22nd in rebounding rate and 26th in opponent rebounds per game. At the same time, Atlanta ranks 26th in opponent points in the paint, where Simmons does most of his scoring.

And with De’Andre Hunter potentially sidelined with an ankle injury, the Hawks are short on players who can effectively guard Simmons. I’m backing him to go Over 16.5 points + rebounds in this one, a number he’s eclipsed three times in his last six games.

Ben Simmons Prop: Over 16.5 points + rebounds (-104)

Treys with Trey

Trey Murphy III has made the most of his starting opportunity with the New Orleans Pelicans and has become one of the team’s most reliable shooters in the process. You can expect the sophomore small forward to keep letting it fly tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Murphy was inserted in the Pels’ starting lineup for an injured Brandon Ingram and has looked the part so far. He's attempting 6.5 threes per game, hitting an impressive 39.5% of those attempts over 13 games as a starter. He’ll get some added opportunities to improve on those numbers against the Wolves.

Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball. Only the Houston Rockets allow more than Minnesota's 38.7 three-point attempts per game while at the same time, ranking 26th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

Plus money and a good matchup for Murphy means we are taking the Over on his 2.5 made threes prop.

Trey Murphy Prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+120)

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