It’s a light night in the NBA with just three games on the schedule, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value in the player prop betting market.
Tonight, we focus on Kevin Durant, who gets a juicy matchup against a hobbled Mavericks squad that has struggled on defense even when healthy. While LeBron James and the Lakers have labored in the paint, does that mean a big night for a certain Celtics center?
Check out our NBA prop picks for Tuesday, December 7, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.
NBA player props for December 7
- Kevin Durant Over 27.5 points (-115)
- Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 points (+105)
- Al Horford Over 12.5 points (-115)
Picks made on 12/07/2021 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
KD to torch Mavs depleted D
The Brooklyn Nets will try to bounce back from a loss to the Chicago Bulls when they visit a battered Dallas Mavericks squad on Monday night.
The Mavs could be shorthanded for this matchup with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. both questionable. That won’t help a team already struggling on defense.
Dallas ranks 19th in defensive rating and 25th in opponent effective field goal percentage. That doesn’t bode well when going against one of the best pure shooters in NBA history in Kevin Durant.
Durant is playing at an MVP level once again, averaging 28.6 points and shooting 53.3% from the field while adding 7.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. And KD has been pouring in buckets lately, with an average of 31 points over the last four games.
Durant hasn’t scored less than 27 points over that stretch and has put up 28 or more in 10 of his last 15. The short-handed Mavs don't look like a squad that can even dream of slowing Durant down. Bet the Over on his point total in this one.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 27.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Mecca of centers
The New York Knicks will try to break out of their current funk when they travel to San Antonio to face the Spurs. The Knicks have dropped three in a row and are just 6-11 since Nov. 1.
On the other side, the Spurs are playing well. San Antonio just had a four-game winning streak snapped, but it was at the hands of arguably the best team in the NBA in the Phoenix Suns. And the Spurs held their own in that game, losing by just four and covering the 7.5-point spread for their fifth straight cover.
One reason for the Knicks' recent struggles is they're getting dominated on the inside by opposing centers. The Knicks rank 27th in the NBA when it comes to scoring by opposing centers and that has been very apparent recently.
In four of the Knicks' last five games, they allowed Nikola Jokic to go off for 32 points while Nikola Vucevic netted 27, Clint Capela put up 16, and Deandre Ayton 14. Now, it’s Jakob Poeltl’s turn.
It looks like his point total is set a little too low for this matchup at 11.5. The Spurs big man is having a breakout season, averaging 12.3 points and 9.4 rebounds, and has put up 14 points or more five times in his last seven games.
Pick: Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)
Purple and Gold paint problem
Even in his age-35 season, Al Horford continues to put in work. The Boston Celtics center is averaging 12.8 points and 8.2 rebounds. Horford didn’t play in the Celtics’ last game in order to rest his back, but he is primed to have a nice game against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
When the Lakers won the NBA Championship in 2020, one of the big reasons was because they were one of the best teams in the NBA on the defensive end of the floor. This season they rank 16th in defensive rating and are allowing the second-most points per game.
One of the areas they have really struggled is with opposing big men. The Lakers rank 24th in opposing center scoring and next-to-last in opponent points in the paint. That has us looking at the Over on Horford’s point total.
Horford has netted more than 17 points twice in his last three games and put up 18 on the Lakers back on Nov. 19. At 12.5 we like him to go Over his point total in this one.
Pick: Al Horford Over 12.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
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