Best NBA Player Props Today: Clarkson Comes Up Clutch

Prop bet #1: Air Jordan Clarkson

I want to start by saying that this is my favorite prop on the board tonight. Seven Unders in Jordan Clarkson's last eight games have driven his points scored prop down to 16.5 from 19.5, and this is too low for this matchup. 

If the total were 16.5 in all eight of those games, Clarkson would have gone Over four times instead of one. That looks way different than just saying he has been on an Under streak without accounting for any adjustments to the total.

The 76ers could be without four starters on Thursday, as Joel Embiid and De'Anthony Melton are officially out, while Tyrese Maxey and Nicolas Batum are both questionable. Clarkson and the Utah Jazz have already played the 76ers this season without Embiid, and they won on the road 120-109.

In their previous matchup, the 76ers struggled to contain the Jazz's guards, Clarkson and Collin Sexton. With the floor spaced with so many shooters in the Jazz lineup, Clarkson could get in the lane at will and finish in the paint or create for his teammates. There was no one to disrupt his shots in the paint with Embiid out of the lineup.

Another notable detail from their previous matchup is that Clarkson scored 18 points against the 76ers while also shooting 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. Zero three-pointers and still eclipsing the number we're betting on Thursday — that pops off the page.

Clarkson is projected to score 18.3 points, allowing us to price the Over 16.5 points at -138, but it is available at DraftKings at +100.

Jordan Clarkson prop: Over 16.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: A real OG

OG Anunoby has missed the last two games for the New York Knicks with an injury and is questionable tonight, so there is a chance this bet gets voided, but it's not like we lose if he doesn't play, we just get our money back. 

The Knicks are without Julius Randle, who will miss an extended period with a separated shoulder. This means a lot of touches on the offensive end for the Knicks are now available with Randle out. 

Why did Anunoby want out of Toronto? Because he believes he's a max player who should have a bigger offensive role. Well, here is your chance to prove it, and a matchup against the Indiana Pacers doesn't hurt. Josh Hart, who has been filling in for Anunoby the previous two games and playing without Randle, has had seven and 10 assists in those two games.

Aside from the matchup against the Pacers, where creating offense shouldn't just fall on the shoulders of Jalen Brunson and the potential increased usage for Anunoby with Randle, this number is just too low in general for Anunoby. Even if Anunoby were playing on a healthy Raptors team with a total of 1.5 and the Over trading at -125, I would be looking to place a bet at this number. 

Anunoby is projected to have 2.2 assists against the Pacers on Thursday, allowing us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -168. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 12%.

OG Anunoby prop: Over 1.5 assists (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Clarkson dimes out

Clarkson is projected to have 4.5 assists tonight, which means we can price the Over 3.5 at -177. The best price in the market is -155 at bet365, indicating an edge and the numbers support that. However, our expected value is only 5.5% on that wager — a bet worth considering, but let's instead look at the alternate total.

With the same projection of 4.5, the alternate total of 5+ assists equals +118. With bet365 trading the alternate at +145, this bet shows a positive expected value of 12%, more than double the edge we have on the Over 3.5 assists at -155.

Could Clarkson finish with 4 assists, leaving us sad that we didn't get a green checkmark on this bet? It's entirely possible, but successful sports betting is about focusing on the long term. The strategic play here is to bet on the 5+ dimes for Clarkson.

From a basketball perspective, I discussed how the 76ers couldn't keep Clarkson out of the lane in their previous matchup. Without Embiid protecting the rim, he was able to finish in the paint. This also led to help defense converging on Clarkson to try and stop his scoring, creating easy dump-offs to players at the rim for dunks. I believe Clarkson has a significant offensive advantage on Thursday and an edge in pricing for both his points and assists.

Jordan Clarkson prop: 5+ assists (+145 at bet365)