The Philadelphia 76ers are hoping that the addition of a star player to the lineup can help them change their luck as they visit the streaking Phoenix Suns on Monday night.
Phoenix has been by far the better team in the early going this year, and I’ll explain why I expect that trend to continue tonight in my 76ers vs. Suns predictions.
Read on for a full breakdown of this late-night matchup in my free NBA picks for Monday, November 4.
76ers vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Suns -7 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s hard to imagine a much better beginning to the season for the Phoenix Suns, who have a 5-1 record and are undefeated at home to start the year. Devin Booker (26.7 ppg) and Kevin Durant (25.8 ppg) are both healthy and playing well, putting up big numbers while playing less than 40 minutes per game.
Phoenix is an even more imposing team with Bradley Beal pack in the lineup, who is contributing another 17.3 ppg to an offense that has no shortage of threats. The Suns have been particularly deadly from the outside, shooting 38.2% from 3-point range while holding opponents to just 43% shooting from the field overall.
Since we’re dealing with a small sample size, it’s important to know who those numbers have come against. In the case of the Suns, half of their games have come against solid opposition in the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers, lending some credence to their performances. But even their games against lesser competition look more imposing than a matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers, who are struggling to get out of the gate this fall.
The 76ers can’t be pleased with their 1-4 start this year, though that record comes with some significant caveats. Philadelphia has yet to see what their team will look like with Joel Embiid on the floor, and is only now getting to play with new addition Paul George, who will suit up for Monday night’s game.
It’s hard to see George — playing for the first time this season — making the difference in tonight’s game. It’s unclear how well the Sixers will integrate him into their offense, or how dominant he can be on the defensive end as he enters his age-34 season.
Philadelphia needs improvement on both sides of the ball, and while George will help, he’s not going to instantly turn around a team that ranks 30th in field-goal percentage allowed (49.6%), 26th in scoring (107.2 ppg), and 29th in rebounding rate (46.9%). The 76ers need dramatic improvements in every facet of the game to compete with the likes of the Suns.
The line tonight is a solid seven points, and on a neutral court, I might at least be tempted to stay away from the spread. But the Suns shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game by a wide margin at home against a Philadelphia team that is still far from full strength.
76ers vs Suns same-game parlay (SGP)
Suns -7
Under 223.5
Tyrese Maxey Under 27.5 points
While I like the Suns to win tonight’s game, I also think a change in the Philadelphia lineup will have some clear impacts on this contest, and I’m using that to create my SGP.
The return of George to the 76ers will be, on balance, an asset for the Philadelphia defense. That should push this game below what would otherwise be a dead-on total for these teams. I’m combining the Under with a bet on the Suns to cover.
In addition, George will take his share of the scoring in the 76ers offense. That means at least a little dip for Tyrese Maxey, who is averaging 29.8 ppg. Maxey’s usage should come down a bit, leading me to take the Under on his point total tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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76ers vs Suns odds
76ers vs Suns live odds
76ers vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +4.5 | Phoenix -4.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +150 | Phoenix -180
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
76ers vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The 76ers are just 1-4 against the spread this season, though the Suns haven’t been much better, going 2-4 ATS on the year.
- Phoenix is 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 ATS at home this season, with Philadelphia going 1-1 both straight-up and against the number on the road.
- The Over has the 4-1 advantage in 76ers games. The Suns have gone an even 3-3 against the total this season.
- Both teams have played to identical average totals of 223.6 ppg this season.
76ers vs Suns trend
Phoenix is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Philadelphia. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Suns.
76ers vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
76ers vs Suns latest injuries
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