Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Collins Stands Tall for Spurs

Basketball bettors welcome the NBA back with open arms after a lengthy All-Star break. We'll quench our thirst for hoops action with a plethora of NBA player props on Thursday night.

There are nine contests on the NBA odds board, and here are my three best NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, February 23.

NBA player props for February 23

• Collins Over 7.5 rebounds
• Markkanen Over 0.5 blocks
• Tucker Under 3.5 points

Picks made on 2/23/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Zach Attack

The San Antonio Spurs will slog out the second half of the schedule, starting with a Texas-sized rivalry against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Center Zach Collins is now San Antonio’s featured big man since the team sent Jakob Poeltl to Toronto. Collins has watched his floor time surge, playing more than 30 minutes per game since the trade.

Collins’ rebounding total for tonight is sitting at 7.5 boards, and he has a good shot to grab eight or more against a Mavericks team that ranks among the worst rebounding clubs in the land. 

Dallas, which runs a stretch five offense and lacks true beef on the glass, is 29th in rebound rate. The Mavs are lofty 14-point favorites with a total of 237 points for this outing, meaning plenty of shots are coming out of their new dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. 

That means ample rebounding opportunities (and plenty uncontested) for Collins on the defensive glass, who snagged 12 boards in the Spurs’ final game before the break (11 defensive rebounds).

If you’re feeling froggy in this first night back on the NBA hardwood, you could toss a flyer on Collins to record a double-double (+300). He’s done so in two of the five games since the Poeltl trade.

Zach Collins prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-109)

Swat Lake City

After playing host to All-Star Weekend, Salt Lake City sets the scene for the Utah Jazz’s return to action Thursday. Utah welcomes the Oklahoma City Thunder, which means the Jazz are throwing a block party in this first game back.

Oklahoma City ranks among the top teams in points in the paint, aiming to attack the rim. But those slashers find a surplus of rim protectors tonight, with shot swatters like Walker Kessler and new addition Damian Jones patrolling the paint. 

Also flexing his defensive muscle in recent weeks is versatile seven-footer Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen is coming off an impressive offensive performance in the All-Star Game, but it’s his defensive props we’re interested in tonight. 

His block total is set at 0.5, with the Over paying out as high as +115. He averages just 0.6 blocks per contest, but has been much more active in swatting shots the past two months. He’s picked up at least one block in nine of his last 17 games (averaging 0.76 in that span), including three rejections against the New York Knicks on Feb. 11.

Markkanen is also a very active shot blocker against other high-volume PITP opponents, recording a total of seven blocks in three matchups with Memphis (first in PITP), two blocks in one meeting with San Antonio (second), and a block in each of the two games versus the L.A. Lakers (third).

The Thunder’s aggressive approach leads them to the fourth highest blocks against average (5.5 per game), which jumped to 6.7 over the final three games before the All-Star break. This encounter with the Jazz has a lofty total of 240 points, which means plenty of shots and plenty of chances for Markkanen to get his lanky limbs on a wayward attempt.

Lauri Markkanen prop: Over 0.5 blocks (+115)

Tucker’d Out

Philadelphia 76ers veteran forward P.J. Tucker has struggled with consistency in recent weeks while battling a nagging calf injury. He's lost a step on defense, and is not presenting the 3-point threat the Sixers had hoped he would be after signing him this offseason.

Tucker is especially out of his depth against quicker athletic opponents, which the Memphis Grizzlies have in spades Thursday night. Philadelphia hasn’t faced many recent foes with the pace and aggressiveness of the Grizzlies but when they have, Tucker has been MIA.

Memphis ranks No. 6 in pace and No. 1 in points in the paint, pushing the ball in transition. If you measure the 76ers’ recent matchups with similar speedy teams, we see Tucker’s output taking a nose dive.

He played only 22 minutes and finished 0-for-2 with zero points against San Antonio, went 19 minutes for another goose egg against Sacramento, managed three points in 24 minutes versus the Lakers, and failed to score in 21 minutes against Oklahoma City back in January.

Philly head coach Doc Rivers opts to match that tempo with a more guard-heavy rotation, giving major minutes to Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton versus those types of foes, while looking to reserve forward Georges Niang as more of a 3-point shooting threat.

Memphis has sound interior defense to throw at Joel Embiid, with Jaren Jackson Jr. patrolling the paint. The Grizz may opt to double team the Sixers’ star big man less, which means Tucker may not have the same cushion he’s used to on the perimeter. He finished with three points on 1-for-2 shooting from deep in the first matchup with Memphis back in December.

P.J. Tucker prop: Under 3.5 points (-102)

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