Best NBA Player Props Today: Dosunmu Gives Detroit Issues

Prop bet #1: Ayo gets buckets

The Chicago Bulls decided not to trade any of their key players at the NBA trade deadline and instead are looking to make a run at the NBA playoffs — potentially securing a spot via the Play-In Tournament. Much of their recent success has been attributed to the improved play of Coby White, but there's another guard on the Bulls who is playing extremely well right now: Ayo Dosunmu.

The absence of Zach LaVine from the Bulls lineup has not only unlocked White but also Dosunmu, although White is attracting more media attention than his teammate at the moment. That's perfect for us because it's creating a probability gap between where we believe Ayo Dosunmu's odds should be trading for his points prop on Tuesday and where they are actually trading.

A total of 14.5 might look high for someone like Ayo who is averaging 10.4 points per game on the season, but look at his stats over his last 10 games. Dosunmu is averaging 16.6 ppg and the stat I value even more — 36.4 minutes per game.

His role has evolved throughout the season for the Bulls, and not only is he delivering with the elevated minutes, but it's now on the sportsbooks to adjust to his increased role.

Dosunmu will be taking on the Pistons on Tuesday, who have a difficult time stopping opposing guards from scoring. Just look at the box score from their game on Monday against the New York Knicks.

Jalen Brunson (35 points), Donte DiVincenzo (21 points), and even Josh Hart scored 23. Dosunmu will also draw the worst of the Pistons' perimeter defenders, as the attention will be focused on DeMar DeRozan and White.

Dosunmu is projected to score 16.1 points on Tuesday against the Pistons, which means we can price the Over 14.5 points at -139, but it is available at Caesars at -109.

Ayo Dosunmu prop: Over 14.5 points (-109 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: VanDimer

The Houston Rockets just played the Thunder on Sunday, and Fred VanVleet had three assists in a 123-110 loss. Not really the number you were looking to see when I'm suggesting playing the Over on VanVleet's assists prop at 6.5, but let's take a closer look at the numbers.

In their game on Sunday, VanVleet had 14 potential assists. That should completely change how you view those three assists because it's not as if the opportunities weren't there for FVV: his teammates just didn't make the shots.

If anything, his teammates not making the shots is creating a huge advantage for us tonight because Fred VanVleet's odds wouldn't be trading 6.5 at +120 if he went Over this total on Sunday.

The Rockets are going to rely on Freddie to generate offense for his teammates in the half court via the pick and roll with Alperen Sengun against OKC. Whether that's Sengun on the pocket pass or VanVleet finding a shooter on the perimeter, I fully expect to see him weaving his way through the lane trying to create looks for his teammates.

VanVleet is projected to have 7.3 assists on Tuesday against the Thunder, which means we can price the Over 6.5 assists at -141, but it is available at bet365 at +120. This presents quite the probability gap and is creating a larger than normal expected value of 29%.

Fred VanVleet prop: Over 6.5 assists (+120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Mr. Reliable

On Sunday night I was enduring my favorite team — the Orlando Magic — losing a game without Paolo Banchero to the Atlanta Hawks, and I kept thinking to myself how the absence of Trae Young was going to place even more playmaking responsibilities not only on Dejounte Murray... but on Jalen Johnson.

What I didn't anticipate was seeing an opening price for Jalen Johnson's odds at 4.5 (+110) for his assists prop. I couldn't hit the button fast enough, and let's jump on this bandwagon before the pricing catches up to his elevated role with Young out for four weeks after having surgery on his hand.

In Johnson's first game without Young in the lineup, he had seven assists on 11 potential assists. The 11 potential assists is a big number for anyone who is trading at 4.5 (+110), but especially for Johnson, who tends to convert his potential assists at an above-average rate.

With Young out, the rookie Kobe Bufkin is being used as the backup point guard for the Hawks. Bufkin has spent most of the season in the G-League, but in his first game as the backup, Quin Snyder tried to alleviate some of the playmaking responsibilities for Bufkin by running Johnson's minutes with him. This is perfect for this prop.

Also, Clint Capela is on a minutes restriction, so Atlanta was using Johnson a lot as the screener in the pick-and-roll while he was playing alongside Murray. This means Johnson was able to catch the pocket pass from Murray, and if he wasn't open for the shot, he had plenty of potential assists opportunities with the defense collapsing in the lane.

Johnson is projected to have 5.1 assists on Tuesday against the Jazz, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -126, but it is available at DraftKings at +110.

Jalen Johnson prop: Over 4.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)