The February schedule comes to a close Tuesday, ushering in the home stretch of the season.
But before we flip the calendar to March, NBA betting has a busy 10-game slate for us to fawn over on February 28.
I comb through those matchups and give my best NBA player prop picks for Tuesday night.
NBA player props for February 28
Picks made on 2/28/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Steal of a deal
Matisse Thybulle was a solid acquisition for the Portland Trail Blazers and their push toward the playoffs.
Portland scored the 6-foot-5 shooting guard in a deal with Philadelphia, courting Thybulle’s defensive prowess to help pad the team’s turnstile approach to slowing the basketball.
In his four games with the Blazers, Thybulle has lived up to that billing. He’s recorded nine steals, four blocks, and 14 rebounds while also enjoying a boost in playing time (almost 30 minutes per game) compared to his final days in Philly.
Thybulle’s steal total for Tuesday’s trip to the Bay Area to battle the Golden State Warriors is set at 1.5 (Over +105).
He’s gone Over that same number in each of his past three outings and faces a Warriors squad that pushes a frantic pace but also coughs the ball up – a lot. Golden State sits second worst in the league with 16.3 turnovers a game, including 7.9 steals to opponents.
The Warriors are still missing true point guards Stephen Curry and Gary Payton Jr., leaving primary ball handing to shooting guards Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson.
The duo combined for seven turnovers in the Dubs' most recent outing against Minnesota, which finished with 11 steals on the night. The game before, Houston swipes 12 balls from the Warriors, who committed 18 total turnovers.
Matisse Thybulle prop: Over 1.5 steals (+115)
Walker blocker
Utah Jazz rim protector Walker Kessler has been blocking more people than a butthurt Elon Musk.
Kessler has turned away 15 would-be shots in the past three games, including a seven-block night against Oklahoma City last Thursday. He most recently recorded five blocks against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday and is set to face that foe again with the Jazz and Spurs playing a home-and-home set which concludes in Salt Lake City tonight.
The 7-foot rookie center averages 2.2 blocks on the season but the recent schedule has hand fed this shot-swatter some advantageous matchups. Utah has taken on Memphis, OKC, and San Antonio in that three-game block party – all of which rank Top 4 in points in the paint.
San Antonio doesn’t have much up front after dealing standout center Jakob Poeltl to Toronto, leaving Zach Collins as the starting center. That allows Kessler to patrol the paint and cheat over on the help defense.
The Spurs’ guards love to dribble penetrate (fifth in drives) and the team shoots 44% of its total field goal attempts within eight feet of the basket. Many of Kessler’s blocks on Saturday came against those diminutive ball handers, with the Auburn product just playing safe, stand-up defense.
Kessler’s block total for tonight is set at 2.5 with the Over priced at EVEN money. He’s soared Over his last three block props and has topped this block total in eight of his 10 games this month. Expect the block party to continue in Utah tonight.
Walker Kessler prop: Over 2.5 blocks (+100)
Wood still good
The Dallas Mavericks’ use of forward Christian Wood is a bit puzzling, especially with the 6-foot-9 forward producing great numbers in limited minutes this month.
Wood has received an average of just 19 minutes of floor time in February since his return from a broken thumb suffered in January, yet averages close to 14 points, six rebounds and two assists over those eight contests.
He’s been coming off the bench behind Dwight Powell and absolutely outshining his frontcourt counterpart while stating his hand is 100% healthy.
Dallas could have center Maxi Kleber in action for the first time in 2.5 months tonight against the Indiana Pacers. And while you’d think that would be another forward that Wood has to compete with for minutes, the combo of Kleber and Wood has been very good for the Mavs’ defense and rebounding issues.
This isn’t lost on head coach Jason Kidd, who told DallasBasketball.com that while he’s slowly working Kleber into the lineup, we would likely see that combo with Wood. That pairing as well as any uptick in Wood’s minutes boosts his output, most notably on the boards.
When playing major minutes as a starter before his hand injury, Wood was pulling down almost 11 rebounds a night for the Mavericks last month. His rebounding prop for tonight’s home stand against the Pacers is at 6.5 (Over -125) – a mark he’s gone Over in the first two games coming out of the All-Star break.
The Pacers sit along with Dallas in terms of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranked out 27th in rebound rate. Indiana is notably bad at keeping foes off the offensive glass, giving up a league-worst 12.2 offensive rebounds an outing. Wood crashed the glass for three offensive boards in the loss to L.A. on the weekend.
Christian Wood prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-125)
