Some prudence must be taken on a weekend with a packed NBA slate. Do not get too aggressive in finding your player props. Pick selectively amid the 14 games.
Keep in mind the NBA is packing in games before the All-Star break, a pyrrhic decision to accommodate both the slow week around the In-Season Tournament final and the full week off for the All-Star break.
This travel stretch shows itself in various ways: Some players find a groove, some players wear out, and some teams check out.
My NBA picks for Saturday, January 25, see at least a few such opportunities to enjoy.
Best NBA player props today
Mark Williams Over 18.5 points (-115 at bet365) 
Zach Edey Under 7.5 points (-120 at bet365) 
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 29.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for January 25
Mark Williams Over 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)
As LaMelo Ball goes, so go the Charlotte Hornets. That is an oversimplification, but it was true again last night as Ball missed a loss to Portland with a wrist injury.
One could be forgiven for wondering if Charlotte is being particularly cautious with Ball’s injury this week because its opponents are both in the mix for tanking for Cooper Flagg. The Hornets losing to the Trail Blazers and the New Orleans Pelicans holds double value, especially tonight against the Pelicans.
Such are the perils of draft orders being based on losing records, but that is a different conversation.
Without Ball last night, Mark Williams scored only 15 points on 6-of-12 shooting. Ball should return tonight, listed as probable, but do not base a bet on it until that is more clear. Instead, simply recognize last night presented an anomaly and a key difference.
Since his minutes finally started reaching the high 20s or low 30s as he returned from a preseason foot injury, Williams has scored 19 or more points in five of 10 games, including last night’s disappointment. Two of the exceptions came in blowouts that limited his attempts to seven.
He has become an efficient scorer and a key piece of the Hornets’ future.
Now, the key difference is that the Blazers slow down games, particularly compared to the Pelicans. Portland ranks No. 19 in the NBA in pace in the last month, while New Orleans ranks No. 10. With Charlotte at No. 8, it thrives much more at what should be tonight’s pace.
Hopefully Ball is back in the lineup, but even if not, Williams should reach 20 points tonight.
Zach Edey Under 7.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Congratulations, Zach Edey, you scored 13 points last night, your most in nearly a month. It was, in fact, your first time in double digits since Dec. 27.
Doubting Edey to score should still be your default handicap with him. It is not his role this season. He was simply uncharacteristically efficient last night as he cleared that points prop of 6.5 points.
That efficiency will be more difficult to find against one of the few NBA centers capable of matching up with him physically. Edey has four inches and 60 pounds on Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler, but Kessler’s defensive acumen should even up the matchup in the post.
And Edey’s rates remain the same. In 11 games this month, including last night, he has scored eight or more points in just three of them. They are also three of the only four times that he has taken seven or more field-goal attempts.
That latter stat should emphasize this bet. The Memphis Grizzlies do not count on Edey for points these days. They count on him for minutes and body blows that would otherwise land on Jaren Jackson Jr.
Taking Kessler’s attention will serve that purpose but not to the tune of Edey’s scoring.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 29.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Charles Barkley may not care enough to learn how to pronounce the name of this perennial MVP candidate, but this week more than most, Giannis Antetokounmpo should be praised for his approach to the game.
When the Milwaukee Bucks were cooped up in New Orleans for literal days, unable to leave their hotel due to the unusual snow covering Bourbon Street, Antetokounmpo hardly blinked. When they landed back in Milwaukee only two hours before a game against Miami, Antetokounmpo praised how warm their cars were waiting on the cold airport tarmac.
And then Antetokounmpo went out and scored 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in a Thursday win against a franchise that the Bucks have become comically intertwined with in this era.
Appreciate Antetokounmpo for that, even if Barkley does not.
And now understand the bill should come due.
Flying to Los Angeles — whether it was later Thursday night or early Friday — only added to the travel toil. A night off in Los Angeles can present another unique difficulty, though one perhaps Antetokounmpo is veteran enough to ignore.
Fatigue should catch up to the Bucks tonight, and going against the best defensive rating in the last month, that fatigue should cost exponentially.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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