Best NBA Player Props Today: Austin Reaves Hunted by Suns Scorers

Prop bet #1: Action Brunson

In the five games played with OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson is averaging 16.6 potential assists per game. Prior to the trade, Brunson was only averaging 11.1 potential assists per game. Not really the stat you want to hear when I'm suggesting playing the Under, but Brunson's total has also been moving with the elevated potential assists. 

Earlier in the season, Jalen Brunson odds were trading at 5.5, and then he shifted more to a 6.5 type of player. However, since acquiring Anunoby, his total is trading at 7.5. Not only is it 7.5 now, but it's 7.5 with increased juice on the Over.

I think it's easy to get blinded by some of Brunson's recent games, such as the one against the Minnesota Timberwolves, where he dropped 14 dimes. However, that's a completely different matchup than what he will face against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. The Timberwolves have a ton of size on the perimeter and interior that would force Brunson into more passes. That will not be the case when Brunson faces the Mavericks on Thursday. 

The Mavericks are struggling to contain guards at the point of attack and will be without their main rim protector in Dereck Lively. So, what can the Mavericks do to force Brunson to pass the ball and find his teammates? Not much, and the Knicks shooters should become more than shooters against the Mavericks, as they will also have an easier time creating offense for their teammates.

Also, do we really think Brunson wants to return to Dallas and just set up his teammates in this revenge spot?

Brunson is projected to have 6.8 assists against the Mavericks on Thursday, allowing us to price the Under 7.5 assists at -170, but it is available at FanDuel at -113. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.

Jalen Brunson prop: Under 7.5 assists (-113 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Be-Reave-ment

I played the Under on Austin Reaves odds for assists against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, and we ended up losing a unit as Reaves went Over the total of 5.5 with 7 dimes. Reaves accomplished this on only 10 potential assists, so when sportsbooks raised that total to 6.5, I was definitely not hesitating to hit the button once again.

The motivations are very similar. I'm trying to exploit a situation where Reaves runs with the starters but also sees decreased minutes because he's being exposed on defense. I'd much rather see Reaves play 28 minutes as a starter than as a Sixth Man, because playing alongside LeBron James will limit his ability to be the primary ball handler in the offense.

The matchup against the Phoenix Suns is a big reason why I'm revisiting this bet. It will be extremely challenging for the Lakers to hide Reaves on defense when facing a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. The Suns should consistently target Reaves on defense, leading to decreased minutes — and decreased minutes are never a good sign when you have an elevated total on one of your player props due to recent success.

Reaves is projected to have 5.6 assists on Thursday, allowing us to price the Under 6.5 at -200, providing us with a probability gap compared to the -142 price point at FanDuel. I'll also address the total of 5.5 because this prop's price is going to be bouncing around all day, depending on where you shop: Using the same projection for the total of 5.5 would price the Under 5.5 at -111.

Austin Reaves prop: Under 6.5 assists (-142 via FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Building Bridges

PSA: Nets-Cavaliers tips off at 2 pm ET in Paris.

Mikal Bridges odds for assists props always kind of make me laugh, because I swear he's been trading at 3.5 since he was traded to Brooklyn, and the second he gets into that +120 window on the juice, it's just about finding the right matchup for him to attack it.

The Brooklyn Nets played the Cleveland Cavaliers all the way back on the Opening Night of the NBA season, and Bridges had four dimes on 10 potential assists. The 10 potential assists are an extremely encouraging number because Bridges only averages 6.6 potential assists per game on the season.

The Nets were using Bridges in the pick-and-roll with Nic Claxton and also on double-drag screens as the ball handler, and the Cavaliers forwards were up high on Bridges to discourage the mid-range jump shot. This opened up alley-oop passes for Bridges, which are high-value potential assists.

The other thing to consider here is that Bridges accumulated those 10 potential assists playing alongside Ben Simmons in the first matchup. Let's be honest here; Simmons isn't helping anyone else that he plays with convert assists. So, if the Nets utilize Bridges in a similar fashion against the Cavaliers in this matchup and you replace Simmons with another shooter on the floor who could help Bridges drop some dimes, this price point with Bridges has my attention.

Bridges is projected to drop 3.8 assists against the Cavaliers, which is below the four we need, but it's the +120 price point that is the key to this wager. Based on this projection, we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -105.

Mikal Bridges prop: Over 3.5 assists (+120 via DraftKings)