The Dallas Mavericks are off and running, dropping just one of their first games to the mighty Phoenix Suns. But their unblemished home record will be put to the test on Thursday as they play host to a young and ever-improving Houston Rockets team.
My Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks believe Dallas will have trouble finding enough offense against one of the league’s tougher perimeter defenses from a season ago on Thursday, October 31.
Rockets vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Rockets +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Taking their 2-2 start to the season at face value, there’s not a whole lot to worry about with the Houston Rockets. They’re still looking formidable on the defensive end, ranking eighth in points allowed per 100 possessions, and their offense has sat inside the top 10 as well.
Their season-opening loss to the Charlotte Hornets wasn’t without good signs, considering they led by 18 before LaMelo Ball produced a masterful fourth quarter. And while the Rockets struggled with the San Antonio Spurs, that young team has been somewhat problematic for each one of its opponents this year.
The Rockets should have two ways into this game. The first is behind their 3-point defense, which ranked first a season ago and will be incredibly useful against a Dallas Mavericks team that relies heavily upon the three. The second will come inside, as they’ll be up against one of the worst rim defenses in the NBA from a season ago despite a solid start to this season.
I expect Houston’s elite defense from a season ago, which has remained strong despite its record, to show up again here en route to a good push at topping Dallas. The Mavericks are little without their 3-point shooting, and it’s worth noting that while they went 3-1 in the head-to-head last year they had one narrow win by six and were pushed to overtime in another.
Rockets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Rockets +6.5
Jalen Green Over 23.5 points
PJ Washington Over 11.5 points
I’ll make a bet here on Dallas returning to its roots from a season ago and allowing a wing that can shoot the ball well to continue doing so on Thursday.
Jalen Green and his defensive prowess should be leaned upon for heavy minutes, as was the case against San Antonio where he saw a season-high 38 minutes. Houston will need a way to slow the dominant duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and it’ll also need a way to exploit a Mavericks defense which was just 18th in 3-point defense a year ago according to Cleaning the Glass. Green has now eclipsed 22 points in three of his four games, the lone exception being when he scored 22 in just 32 minutes.
With a ton of run here, I expect him to fill up the scoring column, as he’s shot 41.3% from deep in the early going.
Then, I’ll look to attack Houston and the high volume of mid-range jumpers its allowed this season and last by looking at P.J. Washington’s points total. He’s now played 32 minutes or more in his last three games and has gone over this total in all but one game this season.
The Rockets will tempt the Mavericks to score from this area of the floor, and Washington should be the beneficiary.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rockets vs Mavericks odds
Rockets vs Mavericks live odds
Rockets vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Houston +5 | Dallas -5
- Moneyline: Houston +170 | Dallas -205
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas has received a steady influx of money, moving from 5-point favorites upon open all the way down to 6.5 on Thursday afternoon.
- Bettors are lining up to lay the points with Dallas at home, but at just 1-1 against the spread in these games I’m not sure it’s the best decision.
- The total initially spiked as high as 228.5 before a steep drop sent it down to 225.5. After a ton of buy-back on the Over, we’ve seen the line creep back down to where it opened.
- Dallas’ high-octane offense should meet its match against one of the best defenses in the league, so I’d certainly side with the big money we saw move this line down early.
Rockets vs Mavericks trend
The Mavericks have hit the Under in 53 of their last 83 games (+20.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Rockets vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-31-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, KFAA/WFAA |
Rockets vs Mavericks latest injuries
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