Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Giddey's Sophomore Jump Continues

We all know it’s the start of football's postseason, so let’s build up that bankroll beforehand with some winners in the NBA player prop market. With nine games on the schedule, there’s no shortage of basketball betting value to be found.

We highlight a potential trade target in tonight’s Hawks-Pacers matchup, while Steph Curry will try to keep shaking off the rust when he takes the court against the Spurs, and Josh Giddey will try to keep providing us value when he takes the court against the Bulls.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Friday, January 13.

NBA player props for January 13

• Collins to record a double-double
• Curry Over 4.5 made 3s
• Giddey Over 16.5 points

Picks made on 1/13/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Baptized Pacers

We continue to hear John Collins’ name thrown in trade rumors but it seems like he’s not letting that affect his play. Not only that, he’s probably increasing his value as the Hawks’ power forward is playing some of his best basketball of the season. I’m betting he keeps that up when the Hawks visit the Pacers on Friday night.

Collins has played much more like the player we’ve been used to seeing the last couple of years after a bit of a slow start to the season. Collins has averaged 18.1 points while shooting 54.2% from the floor and adding 9.5 rebounds per game over the last eight games. 

Funnily enough, the Pacers are one of the teams Collins has been linked to. A healthy Collins could certainly help Indiana on the boards. Indiana ranks 26th in rebounding rate and 27th in opponent rebounds per game.

So, it’s not surprising to see Collins’ rebounding total at 9.5. That number is juiced quite heavily to the Over so, how about instead, let’s back Collins to record a double-double at plus money. 

Collins has three double-doubles over that eight-game stretch and missed three more by a rebound or two. One of those double-doubles came against this same Pacers squad back on Dec. 27 where he went for 26 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. He’s a great value to do so again tonight.

John Collins Prop: To record a double-double (+120)

Road cooking

Steph Curry returned to the Warriors' lineup on Tuesday and showed little ill effect from the shoulder injury that cost him 11 games, going 5-for-15 from 3-point range against the Suns. The crazy part is, it’s Steph, and that means there is still room for improvement.

That’s what I’m betting on when Curry and the Warriors face the Spurs on Friday night.

It may be Year 14 of the Steph Curry experience (that’s crazy to think about), but he’s still making it rain like it’s Year 1. Curry is shooting 42.9% from 3-point range on his whopping 11.7 attempts from deep per game. 

San Antonio doesn’t give up a ton of threes per game but the team ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, allowing teams to sink a healthy 39.8% of their attempts, a mark that's nearly three percentage points worse than the next closest team.

Curry is going to use this opportunity to continue to shake off the rust against a team that is more interested in their lottery odds than defending the perimeter. So, I’m taking the plus money with Curry to hit five or more threes. Something he has done in more than 55% of his games this season.

Steph Curry Prop: Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+105)

Deep strike

The Thunder are one hell of a fun basketball team with some super intriguing young pieces to build around. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and hopefully, a fully healthy Chet Holmgren next season with a boatload of picks to come.

For tonight’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls, we’re going to focus on Giddey. OKC’s sophomore standout is averaging 15.5 points and 7.9 rebounds this season. When you look at Giddey’s point total of 16.5 for this matchup, you may think we’re losing some value. Let me tell you why that’s not the case.

Giddey has really taken his scoring to the next level since the end of December. The OKC guard is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the floor, including 40% from 3-point range, over the last 10 games. Now he gets a solid matchup against a shaky Bulls defense.

The Bulls have been inconsistent since the middle of December and rank 25th in defensive rating over their last 15 games. One of their biggest problems has been defending the perimeter. They’ve been surrendering so many 3-balls of late that they now rank 25th in opponent 3-points attempts and 28th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

I was tempted to take Giddey’s made 3-pointer prop at very nice plus money but he just doesn’t take a ton of threes. So, I’ll stick to the Over on his point total, which is close to even money and a number he has eclipsed seven times over the last 10 games.

Josh Giddey Prop: Over 16.5 points (-105)

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