Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Bear on the Boards

It’s a light day of NBA action, with just five games on the board for bettors to enjoy but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of basketball betting value to be found in the player prop market.

It should be raining threes in Boston as the Celtics host the Warriors in an NBA Finals rematch. But whose made 3-pointer prop should we back? Ben Simmons is starting to look comfortable in his own skin as a member of the Nets and that means his assists numbers are on the rise. And can Jusuf Nurkic hold his own against Joel Embiid and the 76ers?

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 19.

NBA player props for January 19

• Tatum Over 3.5 3s
• Simmons Over 7.5 asts
• Nurkic Over 9.5 rebs

Picks made on 1/19/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Jayson's Js

We get another NBA Finals rematch as Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, and with the players involved in this game, it should be raining threes in TD Garden tonight.

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I like a made 3-pointer prop in this matchup and while Steph and Klay Thompson are always solid options to back, my favorite bet has got to be with backing Tatum at Over 3.5 made threes.

Tatum is playing at an MVP level this season, averaging 31.1 on 47.5% shooting while adding 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He's also shooting 35.2% from beyond the arc for the season but he’s really had the hot hand for the Celtics recently.

Tatum has been letting it fly from deep, averaging 10.8 threes per game over his last six games, hitting a solid 38.5% of those attempts and draining four or more threes four times in the last six games.

Tonight, he faces a Warriors defense that has struggled to defend the perimeter. Golden State ranks 24^th in the NBA in opponent 3-point attempts allowed per game while ranking a mediocre 16^th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

The plus money is the kicker here, so I’m taking Tatum to hit four or more threes for the fifth time in his last seven games.

Jayson Tatum Prop: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+105)

Simmons shares

Ben Simmons is starting to play with confidence again and looking like the guy who was a three-time All-Star with the Philadelphia 76ers before getting traded to the Brooklyn Nets. And not a moment too soon, with Kevin Durant sidelined with a sprained knee.

With KD out, it’s not shocking to see Kyrie Irving shoulder more of a load when it comes to scoring, and that in turn is creating an opportunity for Simmons as the Nets' lead distributor. Simmons has been playing more minutes lately, averaging over 30 minutes per game over the last four games, and has leaned into that quarterback role.

Simmons is averaging 10 assists per game over that four-game span and has notched nine or more assists four times over his last six games. And he’ll have a great chance to keep that up against a banged-up Phoenix Suns squad.

The Suns' defense has obviously taken a hit thanks to all the injuries they’ve had to deal with over the last few weeks. Over the last five games they rank 23^rd in defensive rating and 24^th in opponent assists per game.

I’m betting Simmons keeps dishing out the dimes in this matchup and goes Over his assist total of 7.5.

Ben Simmons Prop: Over 7.5 assists (-125)

Bosnian boards

The Philadelphia 76ers have had an impressive start to their West Coast road trip, winning their first three matchups with the next stop in Portland, Oregon to take on the Trail Blazers. The Sixers have been able to string together these wins thanks in large part to Joel Embiid playing out of his mind, but it’s a prop for his counterpart which will be my focus today.

Jusuf Nurkic has been a rock-solid presence in the middle for the Blazers this season, averaging 14.5 points on 52.8% shooting from the floor with 10 rebounds per game. Now, in a matchup against Embiid, you might think the Under may be the way to go for Nurkic’s rebounding prop, but I actually like the Over here, and let me tell you why.

For starters, outside of Embiid, the Sixers just aren’t a very good rebounding team. In fact, they rank 27th in the NBA in rebounding rate. On top of that, in a matchup with Embiid on the floor you can expect some extended minutes for Nurkic to guard the Philly big man, and in turn more opportunities for rebounds.

Nurkic has hauled down double-digit boards six times in his last seven games, and with a total sitting at 9.5, I like the Over in this matchup.

Jusuf Nurkic Prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-125)

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