Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Memphis Duo Too Hot to Ignore

We're going Grizzly hunting tonight, folks. 

While the NBA's Saturday slate offers us plenty of betting options, there's one team in particular that has been lining our pockets for player props this month, with some great trends and continued upside behind their recent success.

As Memphis takes on train-wreck Washington, we'll be watching a couple of their young stars intently. Here are our free NBA player prop picks for Saturday, January 29.

NBA player props for January 29

• Embiid Over 32.5 pts (-112)
• Jackson Jr. Over 3.5 steals + blocks (+135)
• Morant Over 41.5 p+r+a (-115)

Picks made on 1/29/2022 at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Can't impede Embiid

Joel Embiid's scoring tear and subsequent demanded inclusion among the NBA MVP odds favorites has been one of the league's biggest stories this month.

Embiid has dropped 33.7 points per game on 54% shooting in January, willing the Sixers to within a half-game of homecourt in the East despite Ben Simmons' ongoing trade demand saga. 

Embiid had scored 30+ in 11 of 12 January games prior to Wednesday's blowout win over the Lakers, for which books finally adjusted and set his points O/U at a juiced 33.5. Embiid only scored 26 in the comfortable win, which might help explain why we're getting a reduced 32.5 total for tonight.

But Embiid's next opponent is none other than the Sacramento Kings, who concede the NBA's most points in the paint by a fairly wide margin, which against Embiid is like dangling fresh chum in the face of a wild hyena.

Given the matchup, reduced number and better price, we're back on Embiid to continue the bloodbath. 

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 points (-112 at Fanduel)

The block is hot

While Ja Morant is (deservedly) getting most of the attention for Memphis' sudden ascent to fringe West contender status, Jaren Jackson Jr. has been not-so-quietly putting up a very convincing All-Defense campaign.

Trip is averaging an absolutely absurd 3.6 blocks per game in January, tossing in 1.1 steals for good measure.

As such, books have juiced his blocks total to -200 at 1.5 O/U, however, his steals + blocks market remains a generous +135 for a 3.5 total. 

Memphis plays Washington tonight, whose season is an utter mess right now, and exactly the type of team a young player in the midst of a breakout will be comfortable bullying. The Wizards are playing faster in January (11th in pace last 10 games) and could easily get into a back-and-forth, stat-padding game with a team like Memphis. 

Jackson is 10-4 against this total in January, and has eclipsed it with blocks alone in five of his past six games. At plus money, this is a must-bet.

Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 3.5 blocks + steals (+135 at bet365)

Ja rules

We're back at it with another Grizzlies pick. I'll be completely transparent with my bias here: Memphis has been my squad for years. But I'm not going to let that delude from the reality that it's also been very profitable both in ATS and player prop markets during its glow-up this season. 

Morant has been absolutely eating of late, averaging 28.2/7.6/6.8 in January, good for a 42.6 average in the points + rebounds + assists market. Ja has kicked it up another gear in his past five, averaging 52.4 combined, during which time he's 5-0 against tonight's O/U of 41.5. Ja dropped a 30-point triple-double last night, and that's been his lowest output in this market during his five-game streak. That's how hot he is right now.

Memphis faces Washington's Bottom-10 defense tonight, and with the way the Wizards are reeling overall, it wouldn't be surprising to see Morant go for the jugular. He's one of the most energetic players in the league, and a back-to-back won't slow him like it will others. 

Ja is relentless, and we can't count on such a large regression here. 

Pick: Ja Morant Over 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at Caesars)

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