March was made for basketball betting... and while the college kids will get their time to shine in a couple of weeks, NBA odds are front and center with a loaded slate of games on Wednesday night.
I tipoff the month with my best NBA player prop picks for March 1.
NBA player props for March 1
- Schroder Over 7.5 assists (+105)
- Embiid Over 14.5 rebounds + assists (-110)
- Rozier Over 2.5 turnovers (+115)
Picks made on 3/1/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Run it back
Los Angeles Lakers guard Dennis Schroder was at the wheel of the offense in Tuesday’s loss to Memphis.
With LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell both sidelined, Schroder was the primary ball handler and easily cruised past his assist prop of 7.5 (Over +115) with seven assists by the third quarter and 10 total on the night.
He didn’t play the best game overall, with weak defense, six turnovers, and one heated conversation with star Anthony Davis. However, Los Angeles doesn’t really have a choice but to run things through Schroder.
They’ll definitely need his energy Wednesday as the Lakers face the up-tempo Oklahoma City Thunder in the second night of back-to-back games. Schroder’s assist total is once again parked at 7.5 with the Over paying +105.
He’s continued to be a facilitator for this new-look L.A. lineup, finishing February with an average of 6.5 assists after dishing out less than four dimes per game over the previous four months. With last night’s 10 assists, Schroder has now gone Over his assist prop in eight of his last 11 games.
With OKC playing a similar pace as the Grizzlies but not presenting the same challenges on defense, this total of 235.5 points (vs. closing 229.5 against Memphis) should help Schroder rack up the helpers. And until Russell returns (which looks like Friday), he’ll touch the ball on just about every offensive possession.
Dennis Schroder prop: Over 7.5 assists (+105)
Feel the need, the need for Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid doesn’t have to wait long to exact revenge on the Miami Heat after a tight 2-point loss to their Eastern foe Monday. The Sixers head to South Beach to close out a home-and-home set with the Heat tonight.
Embiid is the straw that stirs the drink for Philly and finished that previous matchup with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and just two assists – a slight downtick in his assist numbers compared to his season average of 4.1 per game.
He played only 34 minutes because of foul trouble in the second half vs. the 39, 39, and 40 minutes of floor time he received in the previous three outings.
The Heat are one of the better defensive clubs in the NBA and checked the 76ers to a 44% shooting Monday and forced 18 total turnovers from Philadelphia – six of which can be blamed on Embiid. The big man draws a lot of attention from a Miami defense that constantly throws extra bodies at him – a situation in which Embiid usually excels at finding an open teammate.
“They double a lot, they reach a lot. We know that. Our passing was not on target tonight. I just thought we were really sloppy tonight — sluggish. It happens,” head coach Doc Rivers told reporters.
Embiid has snatched 12 or more rebounds in each of his last four outings and before that messy matchup with Miami, he had recorded assist totals of five, six, and five in the previous three contests.
His combo rebounds + assists prop is listed at 14.5 (Over -110), a bar he’s topped in six of his last eight outings. With Rivers’ emphasizing clean passing and Embiid playing his usual minutes in a motivational spot, expect him to stuff the stat sheet in South Beach.
Joel Embiid prop: Over 14.5 rebounds + assists (-110)
Scary for Terry
The Charlotte Hornets get to play guinea pig to the revamped Phoenix Suns, with new addition Kevin Durant expected to make his debut Wednesday.
The Hornets are also going through some roster upheaval with starting point guard LaMelo Ball done for the season after breaking his ankle against Detroit last time out. That shakes up Charlotte’s backcourt and has guard Terry Rozier seeing his ball-handling duties increase in the home stretch of the schedule.
Rozier has primarily been the off-the-ball two guard for the Hornets but will now share point guard duties with reserve guards Dennis Smith and Kelly Oubre. Not only do his touches increase with LaMelo out but so do his chances of turning the ball over.
Rozier had to play more point guard for Charlotte when Ball missed most of the first two months of the schedule, averaging 2.75 turnovers per game in that span. With Ball back at point guard for the last two months, Rozier’s turnovers dipped to a little over one per game.
Phoenix swapped out key defensive pieces in the Durant deal, which has trimmed the Suns’ average turnovers forced from 15 a game to less than 12 over the past three outings. However, Rozier is now out of his element at PG and playing with a patchwork lineup with Ball out as well as P.J. Washington (doubtful).
His turnover prop for Wednesday is sitting at 2.5 with the Over priced at +115. Rozier hasn’t had more than two turnovers in a game since January 21, but those errors came with Ball out of the lineup and Rozier sliding into the point guard role.
Terry Rozier prop: Over 2.5 turnovers (+115)
