Best NBA Player Props Today: Mitchell Makes Pistons Pay

Prop bet #1: Delicious dishes

If there's one thing I've learned in sports betting, it's that you can't let a recent outcome sway your decision-making. If there's a probability gap for Friday's game on a player prop, you hit the button, even if the exact same bet cost you a unit on Thursday night.

Curry may have only had one assist against the Knicks on Thursday, but I stand by my opinion that the 4.5 with this juice for Curry isn't the correct price for him to be trading at. You saw it once again in the Knicks game; Chris Paul is back, but for the most part, Curry's minutes are running opposite of Paul, which is very different from how their minutes were structured at the beginning of the season.

Earlier in the season, Paul was starting alongside Curry and vulturing his assists. To me, this is being priced as if Paul is having a massive impact on Curry's assists, but in the Warriors' current lineups and rotations, Paul has a very limited impact on Curry.

Curry had eight potential assists against the Knicks, so the opportunities were there; they just didn't convert. The bonus for Stephen Curry odds is that because he went way Under against the Knicks, this prop is trading at an even better price on Friday than Thursday when we laid -125, but we can buy it at -110 on Friday. Curry will also be taking on the Toronto Raptors, who just gave up 16 assists to Luka Doncic in their previous game.

Curry is projected to have 5.5 assists on Friday against the Raptors, which is a higher projection than we had on Thursday, and yet the juice is even lower on Friday for the Over 4.5 at -110. Based on this projection, we can price Curry at -171 to go Over the total of 4.5 assists.

Stephen Curry prop: Over 4.5 assists (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Center of attention 

Speaking of running it back with Curry, on Wednesday, we bet the Over for Vucevic's assists prop, and he delivered a green checkmark. On Wednesday, we bet it at -110 for the Over 2.5, and on Friday, the sportsbooks are going to give us the 2.5 again but at +105? Say less.

This is easily my favorite bet on the board, and there are multiple reasons, one of them being the matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks. This has been a common theme for me all year: centers against the Bucks can rack up the assists, and Vucevic fits the profile of who has been successful for us this season. You can see this even in his previous outing against the Bucks this season.

On the year, Vucevic is averaging 5.8 potential assists per game, but against the Bucks in three games this season, Vucevic is averaging 9.3 potential assists per game. That's a big number for someone trading at a total of 2.5 with plus money for the Over.

The other thing I like about the matchup is that we saw the Bulls go back to a big lineup of starting Vucevic and Andre Drummond against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and while Alex Caruso did miss the game, this is something Billy Donovan has done before against the Cavaliers.

I could definitely see Donovan going back to this lineup against the Bucks because of their size and because it resulted in a win against the Cavaliers. Vucevic playing alongside Drummond would give Vucevic someone he can run high-low action with for high-value potential assists near the rim.

Vucevic is projected to have 3.2 assists on Friday against the Bucks, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -156, but Nikola Vucevic odds are trading at +105 at DraftKings.

Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 2.5 assists (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Cavalier attitude

When the Cavaliers played the Pistons on January 31st, Mitchell had 45 points and eight assists. The Pistons had no answer on the perimeter for Mitchell; he was blowing past every defender, whether it was Jaden Ivey or Cade Cunningham. It was an iso clinic as Mitchell was able to get to the rim or separate for a 3-pointer.

The one thing from this matchup is that Ausar Thompson only played 18 minutes for the Pistons and didn't start. Thompson is long, athletic, and a really good defender, even though he is only a rookie. With Thompson playing 30+ minutes now for the Pistons, I could see him being the primary defender on Mitchell and having the ability to force more passes.

Mitchell will still be able to get in the lane and create offense, but the athletic Thompson could have him looking more for his lob threats in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, or his shooters in Max Strus once he is in the lane. And that's the other reason why I love the Over on Mitchell's assists prop at 5.5 (+120), because of the teammates who surround him.

Not only do you have the bigs around the rim who can play above the rim and convert potential assists, but his two 3-point shooters are shooting lights out at the moment. We all saw what Strus did against the Dallas Mavericks, and Garland just banged seven triples against the Bulls on Wednesday. Mitchell is in the perfect environment right now to rack up assists.

Mitchell is projected to have six assists on Friday against the Pistons, which means we can price the Over 5.5 assists at -118, but Donovan Mitchell odds are available at DraftKings at +120. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 19%.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Over 5.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)