Wednesday is loaded with NBA wagering, as the Association rolls out a busy 10-game slate.
Before the eyes of the basketball betting world move back to the madness of March tomorrow, I run down tonight’s NBA odds and give my best NBA player prop picks for March 22.
NBA player props for March 22
- Kessler to record a double-double (-120)
- Butler Over 24.5 points (-108)
- Antetokounmpo Under 32.5 points (-127)
Picks made on 3/22/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Walker doubles up
Utah Jazz rookie center Walker Kessler will have his way on the glass tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Kessler is a force on the boards for the Jazz, pulling down 12.3 rebounds per game since the All-Star break and recording 10+ rebounds in nine of his last 11 outings.
He pushes around a thin Portland frontcourt missing a number of bodies for a team that sits near the bottom of the NBA in rebound rate (25th) on the season and ranks second worst in that metric since the break (46.3%).
As for scoring, Kessler has watched his points production jump to an average of 12.3 this month while he receives major minutes in the home stretch of the season.
He’s scored 10+ points in eight of the past 11 outings and with Lauri Markkanen nursing a sore back, Kessler could draw more touches on the offensive end tonight.
He’s recorded 18 total double-doubles this season with seven of those coming in the last 11 games.
Walker Kessler prop: To record a double-double (-120)
The Butler did it
Jimmy Butler’s scoring prop is on a major run for Over bettors, going past this projected points in eight straight games.
Butler is averaging 27.8 points in that span, blowing through totals of 22.5 to 23.5. He sees a minor adjustment tonight against the New York Knicks, with his Over/Under set at 24.5 and the Over listed as low as -108.
Tonight’s game total in South Beach is up to 224.5 points, which is on the high side for Miami Heat games during this eight-game run, which have had five totals close below 220. Given tonight’s rising projections for Miami’s offense, I have Butler scoring 25+ against New York.
Butler has the hot hand during this stretch, shooting 58.5% from the floor and doing a ton of damage from the foul line. He’s picked up a total of 80 points on 92 free throws in this span. He dropped 33 on the Knicks in their last matchup, with 18 of those points coming from the charity stripe.
Jimmy Butler prop: Over 24.5 points (-108)
The Bucks stop here
Milwaukee Bucks superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has a hefty point projection for tonight’s matchup with the sad sack San Antonio Spurs, with his points prop listed as high as 32.5 points.
It’s a mark that’s completely attainable for the former MVP, considering the company Milwaukee keeps tonight. We’re looking at an 18-point spread for San Antonio on the road against one of the top teams in the NBA. In fact, this is the biggest point spread of the 2022-23 season so far.
The pile of chalk is warranted. The Spurs are at the bottom of the defensive metrics, may roll out another mish-mash lineup with many starters sitting out, and are playing their second straight game after getting squashed in New Orleans last night.
Milwaukee should be able to jump out to a solid lead – listed as a 10-point first-half favorite – and cruise to an easy win. That means head coach Mike Budenholzer could have the liberty of resting his starters in the second half, protecting his key pieces for the upcoming playoffs.
Antetokounmpo has already seen his load lighten a bit on offense this month. He’s shooting just 17.6 shots per game, which is down from 20.8 average attempts. He took only nine field goal attempts vs. Toronto on Sunday and has scored 22 and 25 points in the past two games.
Like I said, this point prop is 100% in reach for the Greek Freak but betting the Under tonight is more a bet on the Spurs sucking, which they do.
You could take the Over and sweat Giannis’ minutes in the second half or sell high and hope he puts his feet up in the final frames.
Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Under 32.5 points (-127)
