Let’s tip off the weekend right with some winners in the NBA player prop markets. With 10 games on the board, there is no shortage of value to be found.
Tonight, someone else will have to help Kristaps Porzingis get buckets for the Wizards with Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma both sidelined. Meanwhile, Luke Kennard will try to keep his hot hand going against the Rockets. And it could be a long night for the Jazz with the Bucks in town, but there will still be an opportunity for a certain Utah big man.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Friday, March 24.
NBA player props for March 24
Picks made on 3/24/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Deni's grand slam
The Washington Wizards are seeing their season slip away from them. They have lost four in a row, and now sit 2.5 games out of the final play-in spot in the Eastern Conference. And now they’ll have to play tonight’s game without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma.
Luckily, the Wizards are playing the San Antonio Spurs, the team in the NBA where the tank for Victor Wembanyama is not being hidden at all anymore. The amount of players on the Spurs' injury report on a game-to-game basis is impressive. And this is a team that already ranks dead-last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating.
There just looks like no effort on that end of the floor right now for the Spurs. They rank dead-last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and opponent points in the paint. And with Beal and Kuzma both out, I think that plays well into the points prop for Wizards forward Deni Avdija.
It has been an up-and-down season for the Wizards’ power forward. Avdija is averaging 8.7 points on 43.4% shooting this season. But because of the injuries, he’s seen his usage rate go up in the last couple of games. He’s put up 15 and 16 points in back-to-back games against the Orlando Magic and Denver Nuggets, respectively, while shooting 12-of-15 (80%) from the floor.
Avdija also went for 25 points the last time these two teams met back on Jan. 30. And Beal and Kuzma played that game. He’s a matchup problem for the Spurs with a usage rate that should be higher than normal, and a modest point total of 13.5.
Deni Avdija prop: Over 13.5 points (-125)
Kennard peaking
Luke Kennard is starting to get comfortable with his new team. The Memphis Grizzlies sharpshooter is red-hot from 3-point range, and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep letting it fly tonight when he and the Grizz host the Houston Rockets.
Injuries and inconsistency have hampered Kennard’s production this season, but he is still shooting an impressive 46.4% from 3-point range. And now he’s starting to find that great shooting rhythm.
Kennard is shooting a ridiculous 54.8% of his 3-point attempts over the last five games, draining three or more threes four times over that stretch. That includes going 3-for-5 from deep against this same Rockets team on Wednesday night.
Houston has a real problem when it comes to defending the perimeter this season. No team in the NBA allows more 3-point attempts per game than the Rockets, while ranking 26th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
I expect Kennard to come off the bench and take advantage of this matchup, hitting the Over 2.5 threes for the fifth time in his last six games.
Luke Kennard prop: Over 2.5 3-pointers (+155)
Youth served in Utah
The Utah Jazz sit in 12th place in the West, but the topsy-turvy nature of the conference this season means they are just a half-game out of 10th and two games out of sixth. Unfortunately, for the Jazz, they have also been hit with some tough injuries down the stretch.
All-Star Lauri Markkanen and second leading scorer on the team Jordan Clarkson will both miss tonight’s matchup with the East-leading Milwaukee Bucks. That means someone is going to have to step up in their absence and I am looking at rookie center Walker Kessler.
Kessler has been solid for the Jazz in his first NBA season, averaging 8.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. But he’s upped those numbers to 11.2 and 10.8 since becoming a permanent starter for the team back in mid-January. He also has 14 double-doubles in 28 games over that span.
Yes, the Bucks are big inside, but Kessler is more than capable of holding his own. More importantly, the Bucks are big favorites here and could blow out the Jazz. Since the Jazz are shorthanded, I think Kessler gets a decent run no matter how the game is going.
Someone has to score and rebound for Utah, so I think he gets his 15th double-double in 29 games here.
Walker Kessler prop: To record a double-double (+100)
