Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Tonight's Warriors vs. Timberwolves has a playoff feel, and our expert NBA predictions expect the Warriors to be there until the end.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Dec 21, 2024 • 12:29 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves
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The Golden State Warriors have lost three straight and nine of their last 11, and travel on Saturday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves - winners of six of their last eight.

But one of those two losses was to the Warriors, and now with these teams playing for the third time in the last two weeks, Golden State should have the familiarity to play inside the +3 spread.

Continue reading my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 21st.

Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction

My best bet
Warriors +3 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis
Things have been bleak for the Golden State Warriors ever since their surprising 12-3 start, now losers of nine of their last 11 and having fallen to 14-12.

During that stretch they have been the fourth-worst team by net rating, which includes the fourth-worst offensive rating and eighth-worst defensive rating marks during that time.

And while the NBA is a game of stretches, both inside any given game but also across any given timeframe of the long season, sometimes there is a nuance that provides opportunity.

Take the Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves, for example, who, in a weird scheduling quirk, will play their third game against each other in a span of just over two weeks.

That level of frequency and familiarity creates a weird vacuum where the players and coaches are playing an almost faux playoff series, and they have traded blows like such despite the Warriors having been one of the league's worst during that time.

In the first matchup, Golden State dropped 107-90, as many would have expected them to, given their form at the time. But peculiarly, they answered back with a 114-106 win two nights later.

And what's stranger about that second game is that Minnesota shot better from three (45% vs 33%), shot more free throws (20 vs 14), and turned the ball over less (17 vs 14) in that second game, yet had a much different (losing) result.

If the +3 on the Warriors seems suspiciously short for tonight, it's because tonight is every bit of a coin flip. And in a coin flip, you always take the points.

Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Warriors +3

Anthony Edwards under 25.5 points

Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds

Anthony Edwards had 30 and 27 points in the first two contests, but that was abnormal for Steve Kerr's usual game plan for the young superstar.

Edwards managed to go over tonight's total of 25.5 points just once in his previous four against Golden State, and while he went over that mark in the last two, it took him making four and five three-pointers in each of those contests - something he had managed to do just once in his previous nine games against the Warriors despite similar volume.

In the paint, we should see Rudy Gobert turn in a solid performance on the glass. He failed to hit tonight's total of 11.5 in the two prior contests, but had hit that mark in 15 of his prior 17 games against Golden State.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds

Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds

Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds

  • Spread: Golden State +3 (-110) | Minnesota -3 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Golden State (+135) | Minnesota (-160)
  • Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Golden State is still 15-11 against the spread this year despite their recent stretch of losing, which is good for the ninth-best cover rate in the league.
  • As road underdogs, the Warriors have gone 5-3 ATS.
  • Minnesota has done exactly the opposite at 11-15 ATS, good for the eleventh-worst cover rate in the league.
  • To emphasize how playoffs-esque this third matchup in two weeks is, tonight's total of 215.5 is tied for the Warriors' lowest on the season and is the seventh-lowest for Minnesota.

Warriors vs Timberwolves trend

The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.

How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves

Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Saturday, 12-21-2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FDSNNOX/KARE 11, NBCSBA

Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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