Welcome to the playoffs. These Play-In Tournament games may not feature some of the top tier of the rest of the NBA postseason, but their intensity is every bit as dialed up as what will come in the next two months.
Our NBA picks will lean into that intensity, trusting some Unders and missed shots in these Hawks vs. Magic props before tip at 7:30 ET on Tuesday, April 15.
Best Hawks vs Magic props
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Okongwu Under 14.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365) - Banchero Under 30.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Hawks vs Magic player props for April 15
Onyeka Okongwu Under 14.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Doubting Onyeka Okongwu stems from recognizing that he will not repeat his 30-point performance just a week ago against these same Orlando Magic. Okongwu went 9-of-17 from the field and 4-of-7 from deep. His overall field goal percentage was not an outlier, but going 57.1% from deep as a 32.4% 3-point shooter this season was absurd.
Mostly, though, Okongwu will not take that many shots, not when his season average was 9.2 attempts per game, not when this game has a total nine points lower than that one did and not when his workload will be less than that 40-minute showing. On his own, Jason Logan reached this same conclusion in his Hawks vs. Magic predictions.
Play-In games are played with elimination-game intensity. Eleven of the 16 to open Play-In competition have gone Under their totals. Role players should not be expected to outperform their norms, even if they recently did against the same opponent.
Paolo Banchero Over 8.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
In fact, the only Over prop that should be considered is on missed shots and thus on rebounding props. Paolo Banchero always enjoys crashing the boards, and a game with these stakes should emphasize that focus. He's cleared this prop in three of his last four games and seven of his last 14 games. So on a normal night, this would align with expectations.
However, the presumed offensive struggles in the Play-In Tournament elevate those expectations, as do Banchero’s abilities in more meaningful games. While he reached 9+ rebounds in only two of his seven playoff games last year, he snagged 16 in Game 7, reached eight boards in two more of those first-round tests, and has improved as a rebounder this year, no matter how you cut it.
He snagged 7.5 boards per game this season compared to 6.9 a year ago, increased his per 36 minutes average by 0.8 rebounds and jumped his total rebounding rate to 12.5% from 11.6%.
Banchero will carry a heavy workload, nearing 40 minutes most likely, suggesting nine rebounds should be his floor, not the Over on his rebounding prop.
Paolo Banchero Under 30.5 points (-115 at bet365)
If betting on Banchero to put in work both on the glass and in the minutes column of his stat line, then why doubt him to score 31 points?
First of all, Banchero relies on a bounty of trips to the free-throw line for scoring, hitting 6.1 free throws per game to help him average 25.9 points. A playoff whistle may diminish those chances.
Secondly, if doubting the full-game total of 217, then it should be trusted no one will score more than 30 points.
Lastly, Orlando’s bread-and-butter is its defense. The Magic defensive rating stands at No. 2 on the season, No. 3 since the All-Star Break and No. 1 in the last month. Orlando must focus on its defensive efforts to avoid a win-or-go-home second Play-In game. Banchero is a piece of that. More energy spent defensively should come at the expense of his offensive production.
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