The Golden State Warriors find themselves in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament for the third time in the past five years when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night.
NBA odds have Golden State as a 7-point home favorite, and I go beyond the spread and total, diving into some NBA player props for this Western Conference clash.
Here are my best NBA picks for Grizzlies vs. Warriors on April 15.
Best Grizzlies vs Warriors props
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Green Over 5.5 assists (-115 at bet365) -
Morant Over 2.5 threes (+100 at bet365) - Bane Over 5.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
Grizzlies vs Warriors player props for April 15
Draymond Green Over 5.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
The last time these teams met, Draymond Green dished out a dozen assists in a 134-125 victory for the Golden State Warriors on April 1. While I don’t expect Draymond to repeat that passing output, he has the potential to top his current assist prop of 5.5 Over/Under on Tuesday night.
Green averages 5.3 assists on the year and has been much more active moving the basketball since the Jimmy Butler trade. Going back to that blockbuster deal in February, Green is handing out 5.8 assists with 11.5 potential assists in his advanced stats.
His passing prowess peaks in the postseason, with Green averaging at least six assists per playoff game over his last six postseasons. Golden State will run its offense through the point forward, with Green finding top playoff performers Steph Curry and Butler.
Memphis ranks 18th in assist-to-FGM rate and not only watched Green record 12 assists in that last meeting but also gave up seven dimes to the mercurial forward back in November.
Ja Morant Over 2.5 threes (+100 at bet365)
Ja Morant is one of the hottest players in the Association heading into the postseason. The Memphis Grizzlies’ star guard averaged more than 30 points in his final five games of the schedule, with a 41% shooting clip from beyond the arc. He made 3+ triples in four of those final five contests, including a 5-for-8 outing from distance against Golden State on April 1.
Of course, much was made of Morant’s 3-point celebrations in this span, and I expect him to toss a few “grenades” at Chase Center on Tuesday.
Morant has upped his activity from downtown in recent months, with his 3-point attempts jumping from 4.9 to 6.5 shots from deep per outing over the past 25 games. That’s increased further, with Morant taking almost eight shots from beyond the arc in his last 15 contests, making an average of 2.3 threes in those 15 games.
He didn’t hesitate to let it fly from distance in his previous postseason appearances, averaging six attempts from long range in the playoffs and connecting on more than two of those triples.
Tuesday’s Play-In game has a relatively high total for a postseason match at 229 points, which means a surplus of scoring. The 7-point spread says the Grizzlies will be playing from behind, and if the Warriors get hot from outside, Morant and Memphis could be forced to go tit-for-tat from deep to keep pace.
Desmond Bane Over 5.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
Desmond Bane is one the better rebounding guards in the NBA, pulling down more than six rebounds per game. The 6-foot-5 TCU product had 6+ boards in four of his final five games of the regular season, and player projections for Tuesday’s Play-In clash call for another 6+ rebound effort from Bane.
Given the pace of play between these teams, there will be plenty of chances for rebounds. In their four matchups in the regular season, the Grizzlies and Warriors posted a collective pace rating of 105.13 — an uptick from Memphis’s NBA-leading tempo of 103.69.
Both sides attempted more shots than their season averages in those head-to-head encounters. Given the number of possessions and potential field goal attempts, there’s a natural increase in misses. Add in playoff-style intensity on defense, and this game is ripe for rebounding opportunities.
The stocky Bane will be able to muscle Golden State’s guards on the glass, given the Warriors roll out Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, and Buddy Hield in the backcourt. Some books have Bane Over 5.5 rebounds priced as high as -136, but you can find it as cheap as -125 at bet365.
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