The Los Angeles Lakers pulled off an unlikely road victory against the Sacramento Kings just two days ago, and they’ll look for a repeat performance on Saturday as they seek a fourth win in five games.
While L.A. has begun to slowly turn its season around, my Lakers vs. Kings predictions draw a line in the sand and lay out why this is still an arduous matchup for the visitors.
Let’s hand out some NBA picks for Saturday, December 21.
Lakers vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Kings -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Los Angeles Lakers managed to take two of three heading into an extended period of rest, it didn’t seem as if they were truly making many improvements despite entering Thursday’s game in good form.
That all seemed to go by the wayside as their defense held the league’s hottest offense in December to just 100 points in a win, giving them a 2-0 lead in the season series.
It may be a fool’s errand to go back to the well with the Sacramento Kings here, but the matchup simply doesn’t seem to be one that will work for the Lakers the more these two meet.
Sacramento remains the top team in mid-range shooting, doing its damage just inside the arc. In that long mid-range zone,, L.A. has ranked just 23rd on defense this month.
It was quite stunning the Kings weren’t able to do more with the ball in their hands, but this was largely due to the fact Malik Monk stole away plenty of shots from DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis.
Now, with the benefit of a fresh scouting report, I expect the home team to find ways to get the ball into their hands a bit more as they look to score in the mid-range.
The rebounding battle was once again a landslide in favor of the Lakers, which is a hard trend to ignore. However, the good news is Sacramento’s 15 turnovers and 20 fouls seemed to make more of a difference on Thursday, as it held L.A. to just 40.4% shooting from the field.
The Kings’ offense still managed to score the ball much better in that game even on an off night, and shooting 68.2% from the free throw line to go along with the foul trouble and turnovers certainly was a deciding factor.
Thursday’s game was awfully winnable for the Kings. With their offense still leading the way this month in efficiency, I trust them to shoot the ball at least as well as they did on Thursday, if not better.
The Lakers have been dreadful defensively this month, struggling against all kinds of jump shots, which are the Kings' bread and butter.
Lakers vs Kings same-game parlay
Kings -5.5
DeMar DeRozan 20+ points
LeBron James Over 7.5 rebounds
I’ll gladly jump in line to take a discount on DeMar DeRozan here after he was held to just 10 points last time out against the Lakers. Oddsmakers have brought his points total down a full point, and that’s going to allow us to get this alternate line at a reasonable price.
DeRozan is the king of the “long two,” a shot which the Lakers have been one of the worst in the league at defending, and he did manage to score 23 on L.A. in the other meeting in October. He’s only missed this mark in eight of his 23 games, and one was shortened by injury.
Then, I think we have to find a way to profit off what’s been a pretty damning trend on the glass for Sacramento. It’s been torched in that area in both games versus L.A., and while it was Anthony Davis who made life difficult on Thursday, he only notched nine boards in their first meeting, while LeBron James finished with 14.
The veteran hauled in six on Thursday, but with his season average sitting over seven for the season, I think this line is very attainable for a man who’s grabbed eight rebounds or more in six of his last nine.
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Lakers vs Kings odds
Lakers vs Kings live odds
Lakers vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4.5 | Sacramento -4.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +150 | Sacramento -180
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lakers vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line flew all the way down to seven points in the Kings’ favor late Friday before moving back to six overnight and making a late push to 5.5 on Saturday.
- As was the case on Thursday when these two met, the Lakers have garnered more spread tickets (62%) while the Kings have commanded 61% of the money.
- The total steadily trickled down on Friday night all the way to 226.5 before a healthy dose of buyback brought the line up near the opening number on Saturday.
- Text 4.
Lakers vs Kings trend
The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the second quarter moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.88 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Kings.
How to watch Lakers vs Kings
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCA, Spectrum SportsNet |
Lakers vs Kings latest injuries
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