Best NBA Player Props Today: Garland Stays Busy Against Charlotte

Prop bet #1: Pass-happy Porzingis

The Boston Celtics will be taking on the Atlanta Hawks tonight, and when you look at this version of the Hawks roster, I think we can take advantage of Kristaps Porzingis' odds surrounding his assists prop.

The Hawks aren't a strong defensive team, but they do have Clint Capela who can protect the rim. The problem for the Hawks is Porzingis will be able to pull Capela away from the rim because of his ability to hit the 3-pointer, which will open up potential assists to a cutting Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, or Derrick White.

If Atlanta doesn't have Capela chase Porzingis on the perimeter or decides to use a smaller lineup for more speed, this will result in the Celtics trying to get Porzingis as many touches as possible, and the Hawks will be forced to send a double team. If Atlanta is consistently doubling Porzingis, he'll have plenty of chances for potential assists.

Porzingis has only played against the Hawks once this season, and while he only had one dime, that was on five potential assists. Five potential assists is a big number for someone trading at 1.5 (-120).

Porzingis' 2.2 projected assists allows us to price Over 1.5 at -167, but it's available at bet365 at -120.

Kristaps Porzingis prop: Over 1.5 assists (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Lob City

I'm honestly shocked to see this number trading at 5.5 for Kyrie Irving's odds around his assists prop because it really isn't any different than what we saw him trading at last Thursday when he faced the Utah Jazz. We ended up playing Irving Over 4.5 (-135), but the alternate total was offered around 5.5 (+130), and Irving went Over the total with seven assists.

When I played that Over on Irving it was because I didn't think the Jazz's frontcourt could slow down the lob threats of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. This isn't even a hypothesis anymore: it's a fact considering the Dallas Mavericks had a franchise record 18 dunks in the game.

I wasn't too keen on going after the alternate total of 5.5 at plus money on Irving and opted to bet the 4.5 (-135), but that opinion changes for tonight's bet. The last matchup was in Dallas where it was a 14.5-point favorite, and there was high potential for a blowout. Tonight, the Mavs will be in Utah and are only 8.5-point favorites. With less of a chance of a blowout, I'm hitting the button on the Over 5.5 assists for Irving.

Irving's 5.8 projected assists means we can price Over 5.5 at -109, but it's available at DraftKings at +124. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.

Kyrie Irving prop: Over 5.5 assists (+124 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Going with Garland

The Cleveland Cavaliers are facing off against the Charlotte Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back, but that won't scare me away from Darius Garland's odds. The Cavaliers got absolutely destroyed by the Heat on Sunday, and all of their starters played less than 22 minutes — including Garland.

Cleveland will once again be without Donovan Mitchell, and that's why I'm interested in playing the Over on Garland's assists prop. Not solely because Mitchell is out, but because of the number the sportsbooks are trading

When Mitchell was out for the Cavaliers coming out of the All-Star Break, Garland's assists prop was trading at 8.5 and 7.5. Then when Mitchell returned to the lineup, Garland's total dropped to 6.5.

So tonight they're giving us 6.5 at plus money because of two recent Unders, and the Cavaliers don't have Mitchell? Sign me up. Garland went Under against the Timberwolves and then Miami because of a blowout and decreased minutes, but this is the Hornets.

Not only should Garland be able to find his lob threat of Jarrett Allen, but Evan Mobley has also returned to the lineup. This gives Garland two lob threats and players who can convert high-potential assists around the rim against a Hornets defense that isn't breaking any records when it comes to defensive metrics.

Garland's 7.6 projected assists lets us price the Over 6.5 assists at -162, but Caesars has it at +102.

Darius Garland prop: Over 6.5 assists (+102 at Caesars)