Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Mitchell Snipes Pels

Let’s tip-off the weekend in style by picking some winners in the NBA player prop markets, and with nine games on the board, there is no shortage of options.

Today, we continue to take advantage of James Harden’s ball-hogging ways by grabbing an Under prop for one of his teammates, and see if Donovan Mitchell can keep his hot hand from beyond the arc going when the Jazz visit the Pelicans.

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Friday, March 4, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for March 4    

• Harris Under 15.5 pts
• Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 pts
• Mitchell Over 3.5 made 3s

Picks made on 3/4/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Availability bias

We’re going back to the well of James Harden ball-hogging that's now happening in Philadelphia. And by that, we mean we’re once again taking the Under on Tobias Harris’ point total when the 76ers host the Cleveland Cavaliers.

You knew there were going to be some casualties of Harden’s ball dominating ways and, at least early on, that has been Harris. The Sixers forward was averaging 15 field goal attempts per game, and in the first three games with Harden in the lineup, that has dropped to 9.3.

Harris has put up 6, 12, and 14 points in those three games and now faces a Cavaliers team that can really get after it on defense. Cleveland ranks fourth in defensive rating and fifth in opponent effective field goal %.

So, this isn't a matchup where Harden is suddenly going to start noticing Harris. Heck, Harris could be standing open in the corner with a special 10-foot-wide hoop just for him and Harden still wouldn’t see him. And with Harris putting up 14 points or fewer five times in his last six games, we like the odds he falls Under his point total once again.

Pick: Tobias Harris Under 15.5 points (-125)

Thunderstruck

Despite just having 20 wins on the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to be a scrappy team and one of the NBA’s best bets at 37-21-4 ATS. They’ve done that thanks to some tenacious defense and the play of guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder statistically have one of the worst offenses in the NBA, but you can’t blame SGA for that. The long Thunder point guard has taken his game to the next level lately, averaging 28.2 points while shooting a very solid 50.8% from the floor over his last 13 games.

And the kid has come out of the All-Star break absolutely on fire, putting up 29 or more points in four consecutive games, and now gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The T-Wolves' offense has been outstanding as the season has rolled on. But maybe the focus on offense has cost the defense a bit.

Minny’s D has been middle-of-the-pack this season, which is an improvement over years past, but they have slipped back into old habits of late. Over the last 10 games, the T-Wolves rank 22nd in defensive rating while giving up the third-most points per game over that span at 120.6 per contest.

SGA has been a handful for anyone these days, and with him pouring in 29 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games, we love his chances to go Over 27.5 tonight. 

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 points (-120)

Jazzin' in New Orleans

Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell has been on an absolute tear ever since returning from a concussion that cost him eight games from the middle of January into February. Mitchell will look to keep that tear going when he and the Jazz visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night.

Mitchell is putting up 28.9 points per game while shooting 49.4 % from the field, which includes a crazy good 44.2 % from 3-point range over his last nine games. 

Yup, Mitchell has had a hot hand from beyond the arc. That percentage is coming on a big 10.6 attempts from deep per game and he has drained four or more threes seven times over that nine-game stretch, including in each of his last five games overall.

Now, Mitchell gets a nice matchup against a Pelicans team that has some issues when it comes to guarding the perimeter. The Pels rank 23rd in opponent 3-point field goal percentage and 17th in opponent 3-point attempts per game.

Hitting four threes in any game is tough to do, but with the rhythm Mitchell is in, combined with this matchup and plus money to boot. Sign me up.

Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 made threes (+105)

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