Thursday serves up a six-course meal of NBA betting options but that menu is almost endless when you start digging into the NBA player props.
I haul out the fork and knife and dig into tonight’s matchups for my best NBA player prop picks for March 9.
NBA player props for March 9
Picks made on 3/9/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Nice wax job, rook
Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero is a runaway favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year (-5,000) but isn’t leaving anything to chance in the home stretch of the season.
Banchero is busting through the would-be rookie wall with a stellar start to March, going Over his points prop in the past three games with outputs of 20, 26, and 31 points. His total for tonight’s home stand with the Utah Jazz is balancing between 20.5 and 21.5 points, depending on where you bet.
Orlando’s frontcourt is running thin with center Wendall Carter sidelined and reserved forward Jonathan Isaac done for the year, so the 6-foot-10 Banchero will log major minutes against a towering Utah lineup that features three 7-footers.
The rookie’s versatility will be a handful for the Jazz, especially with Banchero testing his 3-point shooting in this home stretch of the sked. He’s fired up a total of 15 3-point attempts the past three games (making five) after averaging only three looks from long-range last month.
Utah is among the bottom third in defensive rating on the season and is even worse on the road. The Jazz are in the midst of a six-game road trip and have allowed point totals of 120, 129, and 130 in the first three outings of this stretch.
Banchero amassed 19 points on 8-for-16 shooting (1-for-5 from 3-point range) in 31 minutes at Utah on January 13, but was limited to just 6.6 minutes in the fourth quarter due to foul trouble. He’ll surpass that mark in this home stand with the green light to go against a spiraling Jazz team.
Paolo Banchero prop: Over 20.5 points (-120)
Look to Brook
The Milwaukee Bucks have a brief stop at home between road trips, hosting the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Bucks continue to play at a high level and are getting great production out of veteran center Brook Lopez, who’s coming off his second 26-point performance in the past three games.
Lopez hung 26 points and six rebounds on Orlando on Tuesday — with teammates Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday out of action — and had identical numbers vs. Philadelphia on Saturday.
Lopez’s rebounding totals have come down in four appearances this month, averaging only 5.3 per game due to his increased role as a scorer. However, with Giannis and Holiday expected back against the Nets, Lopez will return to his spot as a big body on the boards for the Bucks.
His rebounding total for tonight is all over the place, sitting as low as 5.5 (Over -140) to 6.5 (Over +110). Lopez pulls down an average of 6.6 rebounds on the season and snatched 8.4 boards per game in February, including 10 rebounds in his last matchup with Brooklyn.
The Nets enter Thursday as the worst rebounding team in the NBA, with a league-low rebound rate of 46.9% on the year.
Brooklyn has been especially listless on the glass since the All-Star break and just got outworked 48-36 on the boards by Houston — the No. 1 team in rebound rate — with 12 boards from Rockets center Alperen Sengun. Milwaukee sits No. 2 in that rebounding metric.
On top of that wretched rebounding, Brooklyn is missing starting center Nic Claxton, forward Royce O'Neale, and guard Ben Simmons, who are the team’s three top rebounders. Reserve forward Cameron Johnson is also out tonight.
Brook Lopez prop: Over 5.5 rebounds -120
Drop it like it’s Huerter
The tallest total on the NBA betting board Thursday night is the 239.5-point number for New York at Sacramento. And for good reason.
The Kings lead the league in scoring and are averaging more than 134 points after the break, while the Knicks have seen their offense spike since the middle of February and are averaging almost 122 points since the annual hiatus.
Both sides haven’t been shy about letting it fly from long range, ranked No. 8 and No. 9 in 3-point attempts in the second half of the season. When it comes to the Kings, Kevin Huerter has been doin’ it and doin’ it well from downtown after hitting 15 of his 23 3-point attempts this month.
Huerter has a 3-point total of 2.5 tonight with the Over at -113. He’s obviously blasted his last two triple props with six makes in each of his previous two outings but has also gone Over on 3-pointers made in six of his last nine contests.
Huerter is very much a homecourt shooter, with his 3-point success rising to 45.8% inside the Golden 1 Center versus just 34% shooting from deep on the road. He hits an average of 3.2 triples on nearly seven attempts per home stand compared to 2.2 makes on 6.6 shots when out of town.
New York’s recent scoring surge has forced foes to launch from long range, with opponents averaging just under 40 3-point shots over the Knicks' last seven games. Those rivals are hitting almost 14 triples per outing and Sacramento sits both No. 7 in 3-point attempts and points from 3-pointers on the season.
“Red Velvet” has the green light from long-range tonight.
Kevin Huerter prop: Over 2.5 3-pointers made -113
