Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Maxey Leads Charge For Best Picks

We're treated to two playoff games tonight, which means there is plenty of prop action going on. Read onward to see which props have tickled our fancy for tonight's pair of Game 5s.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 10, 2022 • 14:52 ET • 4 min read

The NBA betting board is alive with a pair of Game 5s on Tuesday, as the 76ers visit the Heat and the Suns host the Mavericks for what is always the most important game of a postseason series.

We dissect these two matchups, dig into the recent results, coaching adjustments, and injury reports in order to unearth the best NBA prop betting value. 

Here are our three favorite free NBA player prop picks for May 10.

NBA player props for May 10

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Maxey-Mum Overdrive

The return of Joel Embiid doesn’t just give the Philadelphia 76ers back their pillar in the paint, but also kickstarts the offense’s transition attack. 

Without Embiid inside for the first two games, the Miami Heat were scoring at an efficient rate and forcing the 76ers to start a good chunk of possessions off the inbounds — automatically slowing things down.

But, with Embiid back, the Philadelphia defense isn’t giving up as much and the offense has found that high gear in transition. The Sixers went from just 25 total fastbreak points in Games 1 and 2, to 37 points off fastbreaks the past two games.

No one benefits more from those transition sets than speedster Tyrese Maxey, who sits behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo in terms of scoring in those pace-pushing plays this postseason. Maxey is scoring almost eight points per game in transition for a points-per-play average of 1.46.

Maxey is averaging 23 points per game for the series and coming off a 5-for-10 shooting night for 18 points in Game 4. With James Harden’s 31-point eruption in Game 4 putting the Heat defense on high alert, Maxey could find more room to operate and thrive in an up-tempo 76ers attack.

Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 19.5 points (-102)

In Strus We Trust

The Heat’s backcourt will be leaning on guys like Max Strus to play more impactful minutes in Game 5, as veteran guard Kyle Lowry is still limping through a hamstring injury. 

Strus stepped up with nine points in both Games 2 and 3 — all of which came from beyond the arc — and he’s not afraid to let it fly from outside, going a combined 9-for-29 from distance in this series.

He was a chilly 5-for-16 from beyond the arc in the two games in Philadelphia, but with Game 5 back in sunny South Beach, Strus will lean on that home-court familiarity where he averaged 2.5 triples per game this season.

Strus is tagged with a hamstring injury for Game 5 but don’t let that report fool you. Miami has half its roster on the injury report and that “game-time decision” designation has followed Strus in every outing this series. He’s fine.

Miami was an ugly 23-for-65 from 3-point range in the past two games, but this is the best outside shooting team in the NBA (37.4%) and will play more like it tonight, with Strus knocking down at least three big triples.

Pick: Max Strus Over 2.5 threes made (-132)

Down-Low Doncic

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks have battled back to tie this conference semifinal series with the Phoenix Suns at 2-2, and part of that has been an adjustment to how Doncic goes about his business on offense. 

The Mavs have been utilizing Luka in the post-up more often in the past two outings, leaning on his strength to overpower smaller guards, and his quickness to burn bigger defenders on and around the blocks. Doncic has also looked to dribble penetrate more rather than play off high screens and look from long range.

Dallas can then play its small-ball rotation around Doncic down low, benefiting from the extra space on the perimeter when the Suns collapse on Luka inside. That interior focus has led to more assists, extra passes, and better team scoring for the Mavs — but has slimmed Doncic’s production from outside.

He shot a combined 9-for-21 from 3-point range in the first two games in Phoenix but was just 3-for-17 in the next two home games, even passing on 3-point chances with an extra pass to an open shooter and trusting in his teammates to make those triples.

With the series swinging back to the desert and the Mavericks having success with Doncic’s play in the paint, we're going to go Under his 3-point make for Game 5… which should be a terrifying bet to watch play out.

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 3.5 threes made (-113)

NBA parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s NBA props as a parlay, you could win $55.61 on a $10 bet?

Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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