Best NBA Player Props Today: Conley Spreads the Love for Timberwolves

Prop bet #1: Making his Mark

Let it be known that I will be fading the Washington Wizards in some shape or form for the foreseeable future. At least until they can prove they want to start putting in some effort at the defensive end of the court — even in a matchup against a Charlotte Hornets team they just defeated 132-116 just this past Wednesday night.

Just because the Wiz got a win last time out doesn’t suddenly mean their defensive issues have disappeared. And issues is putting it lightly. Washington is a bad defensive team. Really bad. Like, at all levels.

The Wizards rank dead last in opponent effective field goal percentage and rebounding rate, and 28th in opponent 3-point shooting and opponent points in the paint. And overall, they rank 29th in defensive rating.

And my favorite player to take advantage of this bad matchup is Hornets center Mark Williams. The second-year big man out of Duke is having a great start to the season. Williams is averaging 14.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game and has recorded two double-doubles through his first seven games. 

In Wednesday’s game against the Wizards, he put up 14 points and grabbed seven boards. But that was just in 18 minutes of work in a game Charlotte was basically out of at half. I’m not sure the Wizards are capable of putting up consecutive efforts like that at this point. And with a little more run this time around Williams should have a great chance to grab even more rebounds and collect his third double-double of the season.

Mark Williams odds for this prop carry a +160 price tag, it's more than worthwhile to back him to do so in this spot.

Mark Williams prop: To record a double-double (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Con man

The Victor Wembanyama showcase continues as he plays his first NBA In-Season Tournament game when the San Antonio Spurs host Anothony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Wembanyama has already shown his promise through just eight games and was even able to lead the Spurs to a pair of big victories against the Phoenix Suns. But while the future may be bright for the Spurs young phenom, this season will certainly have its highs and lows. 

That’s in part thanks to a Spurs defense that does not look very good at the moment. San Antonio ranks dead last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating and next-to-last in opponent eFG%. Basically, the Spurs are giving up a ton of buckets — and assisted buckets at that. San Antonio ranks 26th in opponent assists per possession and 27th in opponent assists per game.

So, that has me looking at the assists prop for Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley. The T-Wolves are hot right now, winners of four straight while putting up 117.4 points per game, and Conley has certainly been a contributing factor, averaging 11 points 4.8 assists, and shooting 62.5% from three over that stretch. 

With this good matchup, it’s not surprising to see Mike Conley odds sitting at 5.5 assists, but Conley has dished out six twice in his last four games and the plus money makes this more than a worthwhile bet.

Mike Conley prop: Over 5.5 assists (+115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Bate and switch

After not playing against each other in the regular season for years, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will face off for the second time in a couple of weeks when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Phoenix Suns on Friday night.

So, you know we’ve got to have a prop play on one of the NBA’s biggest superstars for this matchup.

Psych! We’re looking at Keita Bates-Diop odds for rebounding props. 

With the Suns' injuries, Bates-Diop has stepped in as a starter for Phoenix over the last three games. He’s upped his time on the floor, logging 25 minutes per game over that stretch and averaging 4.7 rebounds. Yet his rebounding prop for this matchup against the Lakers is sitting at 3.5.

Now, even with Anthony Davis, the Lakers are not a great rebounding team. They rank 24th in rebounding rate and 27th in opponent rebounds per game. And now Davis is questionable to play in this game with hip and adductor injuries.

Unsurprisingly, the Over 3.5 rebounds for Bates-Diop is juiced pretty highly at -155. So instead, let’s take his alternate rebounds of 5+ which is sitting at a much more tantalizing +140. Bates-Diop has grabbed at least five rebounds in each of his last two games and the combination of additional minutes and a good matchup has me betting that he’ll do it again.

Keita Bates-Diop prop: Alt rebounds 5+ (+140 at DraftKings)