We're back, baby!
For the first time I can remember (February, upon review), I've been let loose on Covers' daily NBA prop picks, and for a jam-packed Wednesday slate, no less!
After I got over the kid-in-a-candy-store overwhelming joy, it was time to get down to work: who's been riding high lately? Who's been filling a void the books might be underestimating? Which matchups are yielding too much value?
We've got a pick for each as we break down tonight's NBA betting action and I give you my three favorite NBA player prop picks.
NBA player props for November 30
Picks made on 11/30/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Riding the Harris wheel
The Philadelphia 76ers haven't exactly had the start to the season they'd hoped, but they haven't exactly been healthy either.
James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid have all missed time early, and while Embiid is back in the lineup, the continued absence of the backcourt starters puts more scoring onus elsewhere to keep opposing defenses from collapsing on Joel in the midrange.
Enter Tobias Harris, the swing forward who the Sixers paid a shit-load of money a few summers ago, but has been the odd man out on offense after Harden's acquisition and Maxey's emergence.
Harris' scoring plummeted in October (13.1 ppg) but has been trending up in a big way this month, averaging 19.6 ppg in November, and 23 ppg in the past five games.
Across that five-game span, he's topped 20 points four times, falling short by a single point in the outlier. And while the Cavs are definitely a good defensive team and one that should play at a slower pace tonight, they're also very long in the midrange and uniquely equipped to smother Embiid's preferred diet of looks.
The Sixers will need a release valve somewhere, and Harris should see the bulk of the deferred touches. Doc Rivers could be on the hot seat, and won't deviate from what's been working, with the 76ers at 6-1 in their past seven.
The matchup seems like a wash overall, not as bad as Cleveland's defensive metrics suggest. And we're getting plus money for Harris to crack the 20-point plateau again — a very attractive price.
Tobias Harris Prop: Score 20+ points (+130 at DraftKings)
Hungry like the wolf
Apparently, last season's Most Improved Player trophy wasn't enough, because Ja Morant appears to be leveling up again, placing himself among the NBA's upper elite.
While his efficiency has dipped slightly, Ja's popcorn stats are up across the board, and he's even putting in a more respectable effort on defense, where he's carrying a positive (albeit almost neutral) rating for the first time in his career.
Despite his shortcomings as an undersized guard who tends to gamble and get caught ball-watching, Morant's an intense defender who can pressure less-savvy PGs, which is exactly what he'll see tonight facing the Minnesota Timberwolves.
After adding chemistry guru Rudy Gobert in the offseason, the Wolves' cohesion has frankly sucked so far in 2022-23. They lead the league in POC (players openly complaining) and sit 25th in the league in turnover rate.
Better yet for Ja's pickpocketing prospects, Minnesota star big Karl-Anthony Towns is on the shelf with a calf injury, which effectively means more usage for Wolves guards. D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards both rank in the bottom 10th percentile of turnover rate among qualifying players.
Minnesota also plays a break-neck speed (third-fastest pace in NBA) and the Grizzlies are never ones to shy away from a shootout. This matchup should have plenty of back-and-forth, only compounding the edges above.
Ja's had multiple steals in four of his past eight games, and we're getting generous plus money for him to do it again in a matchup that has opportunity written all over it.
Ja Morant Prop: Over 1.5 steals (+155)
Ty-ing one on
The Pacers and Kings have long been two of the league's more irrelevant franchises, and that wasn't necessarily supposed to change this season. But, out of nowhere, the Pacers — anticipated to be in full-on teardown mode entering 2022-23 — are fourth in the East, and the bulk of the blame belongs to Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton has been on a tear that, literally, is unmatched in NBA history:
Tyrese Haliburton is the first player in @nba history with 40 assists and 0 turnovers in a three-game span. pic.twitter.com/0EO2ubH0Zb
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) November 29, 2022
He's clearly in the zone right now and should be supremely confident heading into a showdown with his former team. Haliburton's dished double-digit assists in 10 of 12 games this month, averaging a ridiculous 12.5 for November. His scoring has dipped slightly to 18.5 ppg, but he should expect to see both numbers boosted by tonight's matchup.
The Kings have been surprising due to their standout offense, but defensively are still lagging, sitting 26th league-wide in D-rating. Haliburton will have little trouble dissecting Sacramento's bumbling resistance, especially as a genius who battled most of these dudes in practice as recently as nine months ago.
The Kings and Pacers are also fast-paced teams that will push the action at both ends, lending itself to more box-score stuffing. Both are Top 6 in pace and lean on their offense, and Haliburton's usage will be central to anything Indiana does.
Any inherent desire to burn the team that traded him is anecdotal, but Sacramento's been such an abject disaster prior to this season that any rational human once in its shackles should naturally feel a bit of resentment.
Either way, count on a huge night from Tyrese.
Tyrese Haliburton Prop: Over 31.5 points + assists (-119)
