After a short and sweet Thursday slate, Friday, November 4 sees a whopping 24 NBA teams in action. With so many games on the board, we had plenty of options when deciding on our three favorite daily NBA player prop picks.
We settled on Desmond Bane’s All-Star breakout, Kristaps Porzingis’ return to form, and the shooting woes plaguing New York Knicks point forward Julius Randle as tonight's best NBA player props. Let’s dive in.
NBA player props for November 4
Picks made on 11/4/2022 at 12:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Desmond disrespect
Sometimes you see a line so low you have to do a double-take. When you watch the Memphis Grizzlies this year, it’s become crystal clear that Desmond Bane has taken the All-Star leap. But he’s not yet getting the respect from sports books he so clearly deserves.
Bane is averaging 24.9 points per game, and 28.8 over his last five. He’s shooting 46.9% from three on 9.1 attempts per game. His otherworldly perimeter shooting is the perfect complement to Ja Morant’s dogged determination to detonate on every rim he sees. Yet somehow, his line has been set at only 21.5 points.
peep the gear switch. pic.twitter.com/DZ1F7ZOPMR
— Memphis Grizzlies (@memgrizz) October 30, 2022
It’s not like Charlotte Hornets are some overly-disciplined perimeter defense either, and they’ve also been competitive enough behind the solid play of Dennis Smith Jr. that they’re not likely to get absolutely blown out.
Charlotte and Memphis are also both ranked Top 10 in pace, so I’m expecting this to be the exact kind of run-and-gun game that Bane thrives in. He just needs a little element of chaos — a slipped screen, a missed rotation — to unleash hell on opposing defenses. Bane hitting this Over is my favorite prop on today’s board.
Desmond Bane prop: Over 21.5 points (-110)
Kris Kross
Listen, if I have a chance to short the Brooklyn Nets in some form or fashion right now, I’m going to take a hard look at it. They’re a team that is in complete freefall, so disjointed that even the fired coach dead cat bounce wasn’t enough to lift them over a Chicago Bulls team that is well short of contender status.
In particular, I’m looking for any time I can find opponents with height and skill, because the Nets aren’t just small in stature, they play small as a team. That, as much as their actual personnel, is how they’re 30th in defensive rebounding and 28th on the offensive boards per Cleaning the Glass.
???? @kporzee in last night's win at philly:
— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) November 3, 2022
?? 30 PTS
?? 9 REB
?? 9-13 FG
?? 3 AST
?? 3 BLK pic.twitter.com/mczqgubV0b
I sang the praises of Kristaps Porzingis’ revitalized rim protection recently, but that’s not the only part of his game that’s currently shining. As a member of the New York Knicks, Porzingis was actively damaging on the glass, but he’s since developed into a an above-average rebounder for his position on both ends. Just competency and size should be enough to rattle the group in Brooklyn.
After finally having an offseason to train instead of just rehab, Porzingis has also rediscovered his shooting touch. The original promise of the “unicorn” premise was that KP could do it all on defense while also bolstering a team’s offense with superior shooting.
In practice, Kristaps has often been a middling shooter despite a fluid form. But it appears additional strength and conditioning work this offseason has paid off. He’s hitting jump shots against opponents from the midrange and above the break to the tune of a 63.8% true shooting percentage. He’s also a deadly pick-and-pop guy and given how easy it will be for Bradley Beal or Monte Morris to break down this pitiful Nets defense, he should receive plenty of quality looks.
Kristaps Porzingis prop: Over 31.5 points and rebounds (-108)
Deeper problems
The Knicks are a bit of a mess. After a promising preseason where the addition of Jalen Brunson seemed to inject the starting lineup with a newfound pace and effort on both sides of the ball, things have slowly unraveled since the games began to count. They blew a 23-point lead to the Atlanta Hawks in their previous game, playing selfishly and throwing the ball away over and over again.
Prime among those culprits was Julius Randle. In the first four or so games, Randle had played as well as any Knick fan might have hoped for. He was pushing in transition, getting off the ball, and limiting his low-efficiency long twos.
But the worm may have turned already, as Randle exhibited a lot of the same tendencies against Atlanta that torpedoed New York’s season last year: over-dribbling, forcing it against quality defenders, and commandeering possessions. Emblematic of the shift? Randle took it upon himself to shoot the Knicks’ lone technical free throw on Wednesday despite being below 70% from the line this season.
More broadly, his shooting touch seems well and truly broken. He’s shooting just 20.7% from three through seven games, and his lack of confidence from outside is plainly visible. Randle should be lauded for increasing his shots at the rim to counterbalance his shooting woes, but he’s now at just .9 threes per game on the year.
Tobias Harris has quietly become a much better defender at the power forward spot since last season and should put pressure on Randle to move the ball or score inside. That makes this Under at 1.5 an aggressive but eminently reasonable bet.
Julius Randle prop: Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-122)
