We are just about a week into the new NBA season and some of the early returns have been a bit whacky. The Jazz and the Trail Blazers are the only remaining undefeated teams in the West, while the 76ers are winless in the East. Just like everyone predicted.
But we are starting to get a feel for how teams are playing, and who is starting hot, and who is not. That presents plenty of value in the NBA player props market.
Today, I look at a pair of 3-point props for a couple of sharpshooting guards, and try to take advantage of the Nets' aversion to rebounding early on. Here are my best NBA prop picks for Monday, October 24.
NBA player props for October 24
Picks made on 10/24/2022 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Fred shows the bread
Despite a 1-2 start, the Toronto Raptors look like they could be a really fun team to follow this season with their high-energy — and even higher basketball IQ. Well, as long as Scottie Barnes stays healthy.
The reigning Rookie of the Year’s status aside, the Raptors do have one issue, and that is their half-court offense. Toronto could beat anyone if it had a few more reliable shooters. Right now, the list of Raps who they can lean on to hit a big shot is probably limited to Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and Mr. bet on yourself, Fred VanVleet.
It’s "Steady Freddy" who we’re going to take a look at today. He’ll lead the Raptors into their second straight game in Miami against the Heat. One of the ways the new NBA schedule is trying to lessen the load on travel is multiple games in the same city before moving on. That’s exactly the spot VanVleet and the Raps are in tonight.
Toronto lost to Miami 112-109 on Saturday night in a game that the Raps trailed by as much as 23-points. And how did Toronto get back in the game? The three ball of course. The team went 14-for-39 from deep as the Heat continue to think guarding the 3-point line is overrated.
Last season, Miami gave up the fourth-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA and that has continued so far this year, ranking 20th in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point percentage.
While Freddy went just 1 of 6 last game, don’t expect that to last too much longer. This is a guy who shot 40.3% from deep on nearly 10 attempts per game. And with Barnes questionable, don’t be surprised if he tries to carry more of the load tonight. He also hit four more threes in three of his four games vs. the Heat last season. Back "Steady Freddy" to light up the Heat tonight.
Fred VanVleet Prop: Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 threes made (+125)
No pain no Bane
Anyone who has watched the Brooklyn Nets through their first two games has noticed they have put about as much effort into defense as Kyrie Irving does into reading a book about the curvature of the Earth.
And if not for some clutch late-game shot-making from Kevin Durant and Irving, the Nets could easily be 0-2 heading into tonight’s road matchup against Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies. The most obvious place where that effort has been lacking has been on the glass.
Brooklyn has basically been pushed around on the boards, getting outrebounded in both games so far this season and ranking dead last in rebounding percentage, and 25th in opponent rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, the Grizz are pretty much the opposite of a "low-effort team" and one that loves to crash the boards on offense, ranking seventh so far in rebounds per game. Now, Morant may look like an attractive option here, but his boards are down a bit so far this season. Plus his Over 4.5 rebounds has too much juice.
So instead, I’m turning to Morant’s backcourt mate Desmond Bane. The 24-year-old is coming off a breakout campaign with the Grizzlies, and the early returns this season are looking like Bane’s growth will continue.
Bane is averaging 14.7 points, 5.7 assists, and most importantly for us, five rebounds per game. His rebounding total for this matchup with the Nets is also 4.5, but we are getting a much friendlier +120 value on his number. Bane has also gone Over this number in his last two games. He looks like a solid bet to make it three in a row.
Desmond Bane Prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (+120)
Dame owns the three
After a bit of a slow start against the Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers' star Damian Lillard has looked much more like the player we love over his last two games. Now, Lillard will take his unsurprisingly hot hand with his surprisingly hot team into a matchup with the visiting Denver Nuggets tonight.
Lillard began the season going just 1 of 8 from 3-point range in a 115-108 victory over the Kings. But do you think that’s the type of thing that keeps Dame down? Hell no.
Lillard responded by going 5-for-12 from deep against the Phoenix Suns and followed that up by going 6-for-13 in a game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. Now, the Blazers are a shocking 3-0 and get another matchup against the Nuggets that Dame should be able to take advantage of.
Denver enters this game at 2-1 but the defense has been a little underwhelming. It’s early but the Nuggets rank 23rd in defensive rating, are giving up the fourth-most 3-point attempts per game, and are allowing opposing teams to shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc.
To me, that sounds like they'll have a tough time slowing down a guy jacking up over 10 threes per game since the start of the 2019-20 season. Oh, and plus money to boot? Sign me up.
Damian Lillard Prop: Over 3.5 threes made (+120 at DraftKings)
