It’s still very early on in the NBA season and teams are obviously still working out the kinks from the summer, but that presents an opportunity for savvy NBA player prop bettors.
Tonight, we look at how to best take advantage of the Clippers and their multitude of players on minutes restrictions ahead of their game against the banged-up Thunder. And the last two Western Conference champs face off in the desert when the Suns host the Warriors. The Dubs are lighting up the scoreboard, but they’re letting their opponents do the same.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, October 25.
NBA player props for October 25
Picks made on 10/25/2022 at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Por Some Sugar on Me
The Kristaps Porzingis experiment appears to be working so far for the Washington Wizards. The team is 2-1 and Porzingis seems to be gelling with his new teammates. He and the Wiz will look to keep rolling when they host the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night.
Porzingis is not trying to do too much, letting the game come to him, and has looked better than he has in a while. He's averaging 15.7 points, 8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting nearly 40% from 3-point range, and I expect the 7-foot-3 unicorn to be a problem for the Pistons on the boards.
That’s largely because Detroit has been getting worked on the glass through three games. The Pistons rank 19th in rebounding percentage and only the Los Angeles Lakers give up more opponent rebounds per game.
Porzingis’ rebounding total is set at 8.5 for this one and that’s a number he’s easily cleared in two of his three games this season. He hauled down 10 rebounds in the season opener against the Indiana Pacers and grabbed 11 boards his last time out against the Cleveland Cavaliers (a very good rebounding team). The one time he didn’t was a weird three-rebound performance vs. the Chicago Bulls where he played a season-low 28 minutes.
I feel like that Chicago game was an outlier for Porzingis and expect him to keep cleaning the glass against the Pistons and haul in around 10 boards.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 8.5 rebounds (-125)
Double trouble
The Los Angeles Clippers could be the best team in the NBA — if they ever get their whole team on the court at once that is.
Kawhi Leonard and John Wall are both on minutes restrictions, and now Paul George has come down with an illness. This creates some NBA odds value with some of the Clippers' less heralded players. That includes center Ivica Zubac, who should get plenty of run tonight when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Zubac has been his normal, steady self for the Clips this season, averaging 8.7 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game through three games. It's nothing that blows you out of the water, but steady. And he’s in a great spot for us to back him to put in some work vs. the Thunder.
Zubac put up double-digit points in his first two games before going for just two against the Suns. But the Thunder don't have the bodies to battle Zubac down low like the Suns do.
Oklahoma City is an undersized team, with 6-foot-8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl starting at center, and that has cost them on the boards. The Thunder rank 23rd in rebounding percentage and 28th in opponent rebounds per game.
OKC is also going through its own "injury" issues (cough, cough) with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey both listed as out. That’s not great for a team that literally needs all the bodies it can get.
At plus money, in a game where he’s expected to get a few more minutes, this looks like a great spot to back Zubac to record a double-double.
Pick: Ivica Zubac to record a double-double (+115)
Sunny side up
The previous two Western Conference Champions face off in the desert on Tuesday night when the Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns.
The defending NBA champion Warriors have gotten out to a 2-1 start this season, scoring seemingly at will. The Dubs are putting up a ridiculous 125.3 points per game, but is all that scoring taking away from their effort at the other end of the court?
Right now, that answer is yes. Golden State ranks 17th in defensive rating and is giving up 120.7 points per game through the first three games. The Warriors have had particular trouble defending the interior ranking 26th in opponent points in the paint.
Enter Suns center Deandre Ayton, with a point total of 17.5.
While it felt a little uneasy between the Suns and Ayton in the offseason, he looks to have put that behind him early on. The Suns’ center is averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game so far and now gets a juicy matchup against this suspect Warriors defense.
Here’s how the key big men have fared in the Warrior's three games this season: Domantas Sabonis put up 19 points in just 22 minutes, Nikola Jokic went for 26, and Anthony Davis dropped 27 in the opener.
On top of that, Ayton has gone Over 17.5 points in two of his three games, and he went Over that number three times in four games against the Warriors last season, averaging 20.3 points per game in those contests. Back on another strong performance from Ayton
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 17.5 points (+105)
