The Dallas Mavericks’ defense of their Western Conference title has gotten off to a sluggish start, sitting No. 11 in the conference at 5-5. Even more surprisingly, the Golden State Warriors sit near the top of the West. Perhaps the reports of their demise were greatly exaggerated.
Those trend lines on their own may not be enough to justify a pick in tonight’s NBA Cup matchup, but my Mavericks vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks will trust the short home favorite on Tuesday, November 12.
Mavericks vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Warriors -2.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Somehow, the Dallas Mavericks are already banged up. Both Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington should play tonight, but there is more uncertainty around second-year center Dereck Lively II, as a right shoulder sprain has cost him the last four games.
Related: The Mavs are just 1-3 outright in their four three games despite being favored in three of them, going 1-2-1 against the spread without Lively thus far.
Dallas doesn't have any interior depth, and without Lively, the Mavericks struggle to provide a physical presence to complement Luka and Kyrie Irving. Lively is questionable tonight, but one can be forgiven for wondering how aggressive he will be at the rim if his shoulder is still balky.
An athletic big is a requirement against this rendition of the Golden State Warriors, who are more focused on lanky wings and a deep rotation than on any true size. 11 different Warriors are averaging 16 or more minutes this season, and only Kevon Looney (16.2 minutes) would be considered a big. Meanwhile, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Kyle Anderson all create flexible approaches.
Add in the dynamism of Jonathan Kuminga — and, to a lesser extent, Andrew Wiggins — and Golden State has found a new way to take the burden off Steph Curry.
With Dallas banged up and on the road, simply trusting Steph’s new-look cast of supporting characters can provide some value. Boasting an 8-2 mark ATS this season, the Dubs have the leg up on the Mavs tonight.
Mavericks vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors -2.5
Steph Curry Over 4.5 threes
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 threes
Set to face off against his former Splash Brother, Curry has never shied from a big moment, and he should lean into tonight’s. Dallas’s perimeter defense continues to be led by liabilities like Doncic and Irving, so Curry will hunt those matchups and run them ragged around screens.
Fading his Splash Brother is an acknowledgment that Klay Thompson is already looking a bit weary in his new uniform. After starting the season 15-of-33 from deep in the first three games, Klay has hit more than two 3-pointers just twice since, exceeding this prop only once in the last seven games. More concerning, Thompson has shot just 28.6% from deep in the last seven games.
No one wants this to be true. He is too much fun to watch when he is playing well, but Thompson’s days of playing well may be wholly behind him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Warriors odds
Mavericks vs Warriors live odds
Mavericks vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +2 | Golden State -2
- Moneyline: Dallas +110 | Golden State -130
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some books made this line available in the summer due to the intrigue of Klay’s return to the Bay, and back then, Dallas was a 1.5-point underdog, a number that moved to -1.5 when the season opened.
- But when this game reopened more genuinely on Monday, the Mavs were back to 2-point underdogs, ticking up to +2.5 on Monday afternoon.
- The total opened at 230.5 this week, the same as the summer lookahead number, only to quickly jump this week to 232.5 on Monday night and then 234.5 on Tuesday morning.
Mavericks vs Warriors trend
Golden State's last five games have all cashed the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
How to watch Mavericks vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Mavericks vs Warriors latest injuries
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