The Toronto Raptors visit the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum tonight, and it's a perfect example of how similar records can tell two very different stories.
Both teams enter this game with just two wins on the year, but my Raptors vs. Bucks predictions break down how the road team is exceeding expectations.
Check why my NBA picks for this Eastern Conference clash have the Raps covering another spread on Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Raptors vs Bucks prediction
My Raptors pick
Raptors +7.5 (-110 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks enter tonight’s matchup with just two wins apiece.
However, you can make the case that Toronto is exceeding expectations. While the Raptors had to deal with a massive amount of injuries to start the season (they are still without Scottie Barnes, Bruce Brown, and Kelly Olynyk), they appear to have bought into second-year head coach Darko Rajakovic’s system.
The offense operates at a high tempo and generates a lot of high-percentage shots thanks to consistent ball movement. Toronto is ranked 10th in pace, second in assist rate, and is taking the third most shots per game.
That energy has resulted in the Raptors ranking seventh in scoring at 115.3 points per game and 14th in offensive rating. RJ Barrett and Gradey Dick have looked particularly effective in averaging 23.1 and 19 points per game, respectively. That high-tempo, ball-moving offense is the reason they are 8-3 against the spread.
The reason they haven’t turned more of those games into wins is they can’t stop anyone, ranking dead last in defensive rating. Luckily, for them, the Bucks will be without one of their premier bucket-getters.
Damian Lillard will be sidelined for this game with a concussion, which just compounds this disastrous start. Milwaukee has begun the year 2-8 straight up, and there are already whispers about Doc Rivers being canned, or even more shocking, Giannis Antetokounmpo getting moved.
So, what has gone wrong for the Bucks? For starters, this defense hasn’t been the same since the Jrue Holliday trade and is ranked 22nd in defensive rating. But the Bucks haven’t picked up the slack by scoring more either, ranking 20th in offensive rating and 19th in scoring.
The Raptors' high-energy offense against a shaky Bucks D will keep this game close. Plus, giving the Raps 7.5 is giving too much respect to a team that has covered only three spreads this season.
Raptors vs Bucks same-game parlay
Raptors +7.5
Immanuel Quickley o5.5 assists
Immanuel Quickley o2.5 threes
It may be weird to say this but, stylistically, the Raptors match up well with the Bucks. Toronto moves the ball around the perimeter well and that’s where Milwaukee struggles.
The Bucks are ranked 23rd in opponent assists per game while ranking 27th in opponent 3-point attempts and percentage. That has me thinking Immanuel Quickley is the perfect guy to target in this matchup.
Now, Quickley has popped up on the injury report again with an elbow issue, but I like him to be productive if he can give it a go tonight. Quickley is averaging 16.5 field-goal attempts in his first two games back and has gone 4-for-12 from beyond the arc.
He also only has eight assists over those two games, but he averaged 6.8 dimes as a member of the Raptors last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bet on Raptors basketball at PointsBet Canada
Looking to bet on some Raptors action? Join PointsBet, one of Canada's favourite books for new bettors!
19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raptors vs Bucks odds
Raptors vs Bucks live odds
Raptors vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +8.5 | Milwaukee -8/5
- Moneyline: Toronto +300 | Milwaukee -380
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened as 8.5-point road underdogs and even hit as high as 9.0 before action came back on them, moving the line past the opening number to sit at 7.5.
- The Raptors have been a great bet this season and are 5-2 ATS when getting this many points or more. The Bucks are 1-2 ATS when laying 7.5-points or more.
- The total hit the board at 229.5 and early bettors have hammered the Under, with the number at 226.5 with the potential to drop further.
- I would wait to see if this number gets lower than jump on the Over. The Raptors' combination of high-tempo offense and lack of defense have made them a solid Over bet as well, going 7-4 O/U.
Raptors vs Bucks trend
The Raptors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 39 games dating back to last season for +9.45 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Bucks.
How to watch Raptors vs Bucks
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin |
Raptors vs Bucks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
