With the first week of the 2022-2023 NBA season in the books, we have a better idea of what teams around the league will look like this year. We've learned so far that Rudy Gobert will, for the most part, cut into Karl-Anthony Towns' rebounding opportunities in Minnesota, Lauri Markkanen is now the man in Utah, and the Nets still can't defend.
Those are the angles I'm looking at as I make my best NBA props for Wednesday, October 26.
NBA player props for October 26
Picks made on 10/26/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Reaching the Towns limits
When the Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert in the offseason, there were questions about how he'd fit next to fellow seven-footer Karl-Anthony Towns. It was expected that having a more traditional big man like Gobert to play close to the basket on offense and protect the paint on defense, would allow Towns to be utilized as more of a hybrid forward.
That change was expected to result in a decline in rebounds for Towns, who is at his best when he can stretch opposing defenses, and the first three games of the season proved that correct.
Gobert led the Wolves with at least 15 rebounds in the first three games of the season before pulling down just seven against the Spurs on Sunday. Meanwhile, Towns grabbed eight or fewer boards in three straight but snagged a season-high 11 versus San Antonio.
More times than not, Gobert is going to get the lion's share of rebounds in Minnesota and Sunday was an outlier. With the Wolves matching up with the Spurs again tonight, I'm taking the Under 8.5 on Towns' rebounds total.
Karl-Anthony Towns prop: Under 8.5 rebounds (+105)
X Markkanen's the spot
Someone has to score in Utah after Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Gobert were shown the door. So far, that someone has been Lauri Markkanen.
The Finnish big man scored 17 points on just 12 field-goal attempts in his Jazz debut and followed up by dropping 24 points last Friday and 31 on Sunday.
He scored just 14 points versus the Rockets on Monday but he went 0-for-6 from beyond the arc and didn't hit a single free throw in an uncharacteristically shaky performance.
Markkanen has shot 36.2% from long range in his career, so expect him to bounce back in that area tonight. With the Rockets 26th in the league in defensive rating, they won't be able to slow him down in the rematch tonight.
Lauri Markkanen prop: Over 19.5 pts (-102)
Long-range Lopez
The Nets have struggled on defense during the Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving era and if you thought the addition of Ben Simmons would change that, you were mistaken.
Through three games, the Nets sit last in the NBA in defensive rating and have been especially bad at defending the perimeter with opponents shooting a sizzling 44.3% from beyond the arc.
That's bad news as they head to Fiserv Forum to face off against the sharp-shooting Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Bucks have been playing without their best outside shooter in Khris Middleton, who is recovering from offseason wrist surgery.
However, that means even more three-point attempts for their other perimeter shooters, including center Brook Lopez. Lopez took a whopping 16 three-point attempts in Milwaukee's season-opener against the 76ers last Thursday and drained six of them.
He wasn't quite as trigger-happy in his last game on Saturday but still went 3 of 7 from beyond the arc in that contest. With the Over/Under on his three-pointers made sitting at 1.5, I'm hammering the Over.
Brook Lopez prop: Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-130 at bet365)
