There are only four games on the NBA odds board this Thursday, but with several of the worst defensive teams in the league taking to the floor, there's lots of value to be found in player prop bets.
Today, I'm backing the early-season MVP favorite in Luka Doncic, expecting Bam Adebayo to get back to his typical efficient play inside, and backing an underrated sharp-shooter in Sacramento.
Here are my favorite NBA player prop picks for October 27.
NBA player props for October 27
Picks made on 10/27/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Looking to bet on some NBA action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2022.
Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Luklear weapon
It's early in the season but something is clearly wrong with the Brooklyn Nets, who are 1-3 with all of their losses coming by double digits. The biggest issue has been their play on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank 29th in the league in defensive rating and dead-last in rebounding rate.
Today, the Nets host the Dallas Mavericks who are coming off a disappointing loss to an undermanned Pelicans team.
The obvious play is to take the Over on the points total for Doncic. That total is set at a high 31.5 but Doncic has eclipsed that number in all three of his contests this season and is averaging 34.7 points per game.
The NBA MVP odds favorite is the unquestioned No. 1 option in Dallas and is taking an extremely high volume of shots, averaging 25.3 field goal attempts per game. He has also shot just 25% from 3-point range on a whopping 10.7 attempts.
If he manages to get his outside shots to drop (which seems probable against a Brooklyn team allowing opponents to shoot 39.5% from deep), Doncic should easily leapfrog this number. Especially with the Mavs leading the league in rebounding rate, which will lead to plenty of second chances when he does miss.
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 31.5 points (-115)
Bam Bam Baklava
Bam Adebayo is off to a slower start to the season, but he played well last night, scoring 18 points and grabbing eight rebounds in just 28 minutes of action in Miami's blowout win against Portland. The Heat big man has struggled offensively in three of five games this season despite looking terrific during the preseason.
Adebayo scored 12 points on just 5-15 shooting in the season opener and then averaged 12 ppg in back-to-back games against the Raptors. He took just six field goal attempts in that first contest versus the Raps on Saturday and shot just 4-14 (28.6%) in the rematch on Monday.
That said, Adebayo has proven himself over a larger sample size after averaging 19.1 ppg with a 55.7 FG% in 56 games last season. He also averaged 18.7 ppg on 57% shooting in 2020-21 and should be in line for a strong performance against the Warriors tonight
The Dubs are playing at the fastest pace in the NBA and have been getting killed inside, ranking 29th in opponent two-point percentage (58.4%) and 28th in opponent points per game in the paint (57.5).
Bam Adebayo Prop: Over 16.5 points (-105)
Huertin' 'em
Expect plenty of fireworks in Sacramento where the Kings look for their first win of the season against the 3-1 Grizzlies. The total is set at a whopping 236 which makes plenty of sense when you consider how bad these teams have been at defending.
The Kings are playing at the fourth-fastest tempo in the NBA and are 23rd in scoring defense surrendering 118.7 ppg. Somewhat surprisingly, the Grizzlies have been even worse and are giving up 123.8 ppg with the worst defensive rating in the league.
With how disinterested the Grizz have looked on their own end of the floor, I like Sacramento's Kevin Huerter to have a solid game.
Huerter was acquired by the Kings in the offseason and is averaging 16.7 points and 30.7 minutes per game. He scored 23 points in his team debut last Wednesday and followed up on that with an 18-point performance against the Clippers on Saturday.
He scored just nine points against the Warriors on Sunday but that was on the tail-end of a back-to-back and he shot just 3-for-14 in that contest (including 1 of 8 from beyond the arc).
That high volume of shot attempts is a good indication of future production and when you consider his career 3-point percentage sits at 38.1% he's likely in line for a bounce-back game tonight. With his points total sitting at just 11.5, I'm hammering the Over.
Kevin Huerter Prop: Over 11.5 points (-125)
