Today's edition of daily NBA player props takes a look at the matchups between the New York Knicks and the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns, and the Washington Wizards and the Boston Celtics.
Donovan Mitchell will seek to show the Knicks just what they missed out on at Madison Square Garden, the Wizards will see if their renewed rim defense is enough to deny the C's, and in a game against Houston, Deandre Ayton’s absence is Mikal Bridges opportunity.
We break it all down in our best NBA picks and predictions below.
NBA player props for October 30
Picks made on 10/30/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Homecoming King
Donovan Mitchell was almost a Knick. He even said as much in interviews shortly after the trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers. So in his first game at the Garden since the Knicks failed pursuit, it’s fair to think there might there be a bit of extra motivation on his part.
Not that he needs it, as Mitchell has been playing at a career-best level to start the season. Mitchell’s usage has been sky-high as Darius Garland remains out with an eye laceration and he’s looked completely at ease as the primary scorer for this Cleveland team. The 26-year-old shooting guard is posting highs for points (31), assists (6.4), and efficiency (60% true shooting).
TOUGH.@spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/twdsGW2Ulm
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) October 29, 2022
Motivation aside though, schematically this matchup should strongly favor Spida.
The Knicks have done some nice things on the defensive end this season, mostly at the rim, but their perimeter defense has been bad if not atrocious depending on the night. In part, this is on the continued absence of Quentin Grimes, their best perimeter defender, but it also stems from underwhelming play by the guys they’ve had available.
Jalen Brunson is tough as nails, but he might be less than 6-feet tall. Evan Fournier tries hard but is overmatched physically in both speed and strength in just about every matchup.
RJ Barrett has also been disappointing on that end. He has plenty of tools but is often the victim of his own inattentiveness and poor anticipation. He particularly struggles with smaller, speedier guards with burst who can leave him in the dust before he even realizes he’s in the play. In other words, players just like Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell is just off dropping 41 against the Boston Celtics, while frequently guarded by the likes of Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, and Jaylen Brown on the perimeter. He’s going to slice through this Knicks perimeter defense at will on Sunday.
Donovan Mitchell Prop: Over 27.5 points (-111)
Building Bridges
Mikal Bridges is a consummate role player... he’s an outstanding, impossibly long defender, he moves without the ball, and he’s an effective offensive player without demanding too many touches.
Given how efficient of a scorer he is (career 59% effective field goal percentage), it’s fair to wonder if there isn’t even a little more he could be doing on that end if given the opportunity. Well, the opportunity may be knocking on Sunday.
Deandre Ayton was forced to leave the Phoenix Suns’ previous game against the New Orleans Pelicans after less than eight minutes of action after landing on Jonas Valanciunas’ foot. He now has a sprained ankle and is likely to be out of the rotation for at least a week.
That’s about 12 shots per game more to go around to the rest of the rotation. Inevitably, some will go to Bridges.
With Ayton out most of the game against the Pels, Bridges got his most shot attempts of the season and added 27 points on 10-13 from the field. He should see similar opportunity against the Houston Rockets tonight, both as a play-finisher and perhaps even as a secondary initiator.
Season-high 2?7? PTS on 10-of-13 shooting (and a @Phillies win)
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) October 29, 2022
Have yourself a night, @mikal_bridges ???? pic.twitter.com/V1JO5ZcFMJ
The Rockets are not a good defensive team, currently ranked 23rd on that end after finishing dead last a season ago.
If there was ever a time to empower Bridges to spread his wings a bit and see if there’s more he could be doing as an on-ball guy, this would be it. Even if Bridges doesn’t get to initiate in that way though, I still expect him to score in bunches in this matchup.
His Inspector Gadget-esque length allows him to act as the roll man in a pick-and-roll for either CP3 or Booker, and their craftiness should have an inexperienced Rockets defense on their heels all night.
Mikal Bridges Prop: Over 15.5 points (-115)
Jaylen Brown denied
Jaylen Brown has increased his efficiency yet again this season, but it hasn’t been the result of improvement across the board. Brown clearly prioritized his much-criticized handle in the offseason, and it’s led to even greater confidence attacking the rim.
He’s struggled shooting from just about everywhere else though, seeing declines in volume and efficiency from three and midrange. His 31.4% mark from deep would be a career low, and he’s taking fewer attempts from there and from the midrange than he has since 2018-19.
He’s become a relentless rim driver, which is a great way for an athletic wing like Brown to make an impact, but it runs into trouble against particular matchups where the defense defends the rim at all costs like the Milwaukee Bucks — or like tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards.
JAYLEN BROWN THROWS IT DOWN pic.twitter.com/S1lmNHRahd
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) October 29, 2022
Kristaps Porzingis was at one time an elite rim protector on par with any in the NBA save Rudy Gobert. Injuries both sapped his developmental arc and his mobility, however, as well as an acrimonious partnership with the brilliant (but absolutely ball-dominant) Luka Doncic.
The trade to Washington, and a healthy offseason, seem to have reinvigorated Porzingis, who is now playing the 5 full-time. The impact he’s having is eyepopping.
The Wizards are allowing the third-fewest shots at the rim in the league, just a hair behind the Miami Heat, almost all of which is on KP. Through five games this season, opponents are shooting about 20% worse on field goals with Porzingis as the primary defender within six feet of the basket on eight such shots per game, one of the top marks in the league.
Brown has become reliant on scoring at the basket to be efficient this season, a shift that should see him go under against Porzingis and this Washington defense.
Jaylen Brown Prop: Under 23.5 points (-105)
