Best NBA Player Props Today: Luka Makes Presence Known on Glass

Prop bet #1: Dogged Doncic

Because he gets labeled a point guard, it can go unnoticed just how big Luka Doncic is. And not only is he big, but he plays big. While Doncic’s defensive effort is often correctly criticized, one place where you can never fault his effort is on the boards.

Doncic consistently grades out as either the best or near best defensive rebounder for his position in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass with a defensive rebound rate north of 20% every season of his career. In a fun case of small sample size theatre, Luka’s defensive rebounding rate has been a comically high 32.8% through two games played this season.

Part of this is due to his strength. Luka might not be the quickest, but because he can move opponents like so many pieces on a chess board he almost always gets to where he wants to go. Typically, that’s something we say about a player looking to score, but Luka brings the same element to rebound positioning. He has a preternatural nose for the ball and a desire to go get it that is rare for players of his ilk.

On Monday, he’s going against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies were dealt a devastating blow to their playoff hopes when they lost Steven Adams for the season. Adams is a team rebounding scheme unto himself, and the Grizzlies are among the very best on both sides of the glass with him on the court. 

But without him, they’re relying on Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman, and unproven backups. Tillman is middling on the boards, and certainly nowhere close to Adams. JJJ is straight-up bad on the glass. It’s grown to be such a noticeable flaw that teams in the World Cup picked at it and picked at it until Team USA failed to medal. Behind them is nothing better, at least until Santi Aldama heals up or they’re allowed to sign Bismack Biyombo.

The glass is Memphis’ fatal flaw right now, so I’m backing any and all elite rebounders going against them until further notice. Doncic fits the bill.

Luka Doncic prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Kristaps' cannon

As I see it, if a prop ain’t broke, don’t stop betting on it. And I continue to like the value of Kristaps Porzingis’ 3-pointer props early in the season. Porzingis opened the season in spectacular fashion by hitting five of his nine treys against the New York Knicks, seemingly validating his addition to the Boston Celtics in a single night. He only hit two of his in the follow-up game against the Miami Heat, but that team is built like no other to defend Porzingis. 

Bam Adebayo is one of the three best defenders in the NBA, and his build and mobility probably make him the best cover for KP in the entire league. He was also dogged by foul trouble before ultimately fouling out, so the drop in attempts is not a reflection of his per-minute production changing.

Monday he’s going against his old team, the Washington Wizards. The drop-off in defense going from the Heat to the Qizards is so massive it would give the Mariana Trench a run for its money. 

Not only are the Wizards an abysmal team defense, but they have literally nobody suitable to guard Porzingis with whatsoever. Daniel Gafford has no chance to hang on the perimeter, as such I’m expecting KP’s performance to look a lot like his debut against the Knicks.

Kristaps Porzingis prop: Over 2.5 threes made (+135 at 888sport)

Prop bet #3: Zion's will

For my final player prop, I’m backing Zion Williamson Over 25.5 points against the Golden State Warriors. Zion is — knock on wood — finally starting a season healthy, and he is one of the most unstoppable forces in basketball when at or near full strength. 

The Warriors have a clean injury report, but that doesn’t mean they’re operating at the top of their game. Sunday was Draymond Green’s first game of the season, and he missed all of training camp with a significant ankle injury. It will take him a while to work into game shape, and an early road back-to-back is a daunting test.

Draymond putting in a sub-par performance might be okay if Kevon Looney was playing at a high level or if Andrew Wiggins was looking like his All-Star caliber two-way self from two years ago. But for whatever reason — health, rhythm, or otherwise — neither Looney nor Wiggins has looked right to begin the season.

Stopping Zion takes size, physicality, and great team cohesion (and a lot of luck). The Warriors are one of the smallest teams in the NBA, and with the addition of Chris Paul, somehow keep getting smaller.

I’m expecting Zion to bully his way through the Warriors front court en route to cashing this prop.

Zion Williamson prop: Over 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)