It’s a light NBA schedule tonight, but there’s still major highlight potential with Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama and (possibly) Giannis Antetokounmpo in action.
No team needs a win more than the 1-6 Milwaukee Bucks, who are tied with the Utah Jazz — tonight’s opponents — for the worst record in the league, but my NBA picks are staying away from the mess in Milwaukee and looking elsewhere for my top NBA player props.
Check out my three favorite props for the November 7 slate, including a testing night for Wemby.
Best NBA player props today
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Naz Reid Over 11.5 points (-120 at bet365) -
Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365) -
Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-7 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for November 7
Prop bet #1: Naz Reid Over 11.5 points
Last year’s Sixth Man of the Year award was well-deserved recognition for Naz Reid’s impact on a rising Minnesota Timberwolves team, but it’s getting tougher and tougher for Chris Finch to keep Reid off the floor when he’s playing like a starter.
Reid went 9-for-13 with five triples in Wednesday’s 114-93 win over the Charlotte Hornets, and the T-Wolves’ spacing is noticeably better when they break up the Rudy Gobert-Julius Randle frontcourt pairing and dial up Reid’s 3-point shooting (almost 49% this year).
I like tonight’s matchup for Reid against a Chicago Bulls defense that’s given up at least 119 points in each of its three games this month. An undersized Chicago bench could be in trouble if Reid also starts operating in the post.
He’s averaging 15.3 ppg so far this season, and he’s gone past this 11.5 O/U number in five of his seven outings. As Minnesota tries to ease some of the burden on Edwards’ shoulders, look for Reid to be part of the answer.
Prop bet #2: Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 rebounds
Even with a promising career stuck in neutral, Deandre Ayton finds a way to put up numbers. In what could be a string of auditions for an in-season trade, he’s off to a nice start for the 3-5 Portland Trail Blazers.
Camped around the basket, Ayton’s scoring has fluctuated, but his work on the boards has been steady. His 11.5 rpg mark ranks ninth in the league, and that’s where I’m looking tonight.
Fresh from no action since Monday, I see Ayton racking up another big tally on the glass here against the San Antonio Spurs, with the former Phoenix Sun big man poised to reach 12 rebounds for the third straight contest.
The trends suggest he’ll be in the ballpark. He’s only had fewer than 11 boards in one of his eight outings this season, even if those numbers overstate his overall impact (he’s a -25 this year).
If Portland adopts the increasingly popular approach of guarding Wembanyama with a wing defender, it should position Ayton with a size advantage in the battle for rebounds — and he’s coming off a 13-board effort against the New Orleans Pelicans at the start of this week.
Prop bet #3: Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points
It’s still far too early to draw conclusions about Year 2 for Wemby, but it’s been rockier than expected through San Antonio’s first eight games and a play-in run already feels like a stretch.
Even with “Point God” Chris Paul putting Victor Wembanyama in better spots, his offense hasn’t jumped off the screen — and I’m fading Wemby’s points prop tonight, with the number climbing to 24.5.
I’m certainly not buying into the idea of Portland’s defense putting the clamps on the Spurs’ star man, but the damage may not be major. Wembanyama has only reached the 25-point mark in one of his past six contests, with teams successfully taking away some of his easy baskets.
Most concerningly, he’s shooting just 21% from downtown this year on seven attempts per game. That’s a real dip, and it’s tough to bank on his points total Over until that trend turns around — which it will, but perhaps not just yet.
San Antonio is still navigating Gregg Popovich’s absence, and it’s fair to ask questions about an offense that’s averaging an NBA-worst 104.4 ppg. Despite homecourt advantage tonight, I’m not convinced.
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