Two teams that are both fighting for play-in positioning will face off on Thursday night as the Miami Heat host the Memphis Grizzlies at the Kaseya Center.
Miami is getting hot at the right time and faces a struggling opponent tonight, so I’ll be taking it to cover the spread in my Grizzlies vs. Heat predictions below.
Read on to see my full analysis of tonight’s game as I provide free NBA picks for Thursday, April 3.
Grizzlies vs Heat prediction
My best bet: Heat +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s hard to find two teams that are heading in different directions more dramatically right now than the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat. Memphis has lost seven of its last eight, and has struggled to find any improvement under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo after Taylor Jenkins was fired last Friday.
The Grizzlies are struggling to play any defense whatsoever, a problem for a team that likes to push the pace – a strategy that worked great for the first three-quarters of the season, when they were able to get some stops.
Miami went through its own turmoil earlier this year after the exit of Jimmy Butler. But that’s changed during the past 10 days or so, as the Heat have now won six games in a row and covered in eight straight contests. And while some of those wins were over weaker opponents, they’ve also won outright twice as underdogs, including a stunning 124-103 win on the road against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday.
The Heat have been a solid defensive team all season long, but the major concern without Butler was how this team would generate offense. Miami ranks 21st in offensive rating (112.0), and outside of Tyler Herro, doesn’t have any elite scorers. But that hasn’t been a problem during the current winning streak, with the Heat averaging 119.7 ppg over their last six outings.
The one concern we might have about Miami heading into tonight’s game is the March 15 meeting between these teams, which the Grizzlies won by 34 points. But we shouldn’t read too heavily into a single game, and the Heat were playing some of their worst basketball of the season at that point.
I don’t normally like to take recent streaks too seriously, either, but it’s clear that Miami has settled into its new lineup – something we always knew was going to be a short-term issue after it got rid of Butler.
I haven’t seen that sort of cohesion in Memphis, where the Grizzlies are floundering and are now trying to figure out how to right the ship under a new coach. I’m believing what these teams have shown over the past two weeks and taking the Heat to cover at home.
Grizzlies vs Heat same-game parlay
Heat +4.5
Over 224.5
Tyler Herro 25+ points
The Heat should be able to take advantage of a Memphis defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately, and that’s the concept for my same-game parlay tonight. Along with taking Miami to cover, I’m also betting on the Over at 224.5 points. Memphis has allowed opponents to score an average of 127.5 ppg during its current four-game losing streak, and normally plays well Over tonight’s total.
Even with Miami favoring a slower pace of play, the Grizzlies will try to run the floor and will take this game to the Over.
With a lot of points on the board, I’m happy to take Tyler Herro to score at least 25 points to round out our SGP. Herro has scored at least 25 points in each of his last four games, and has been a big part of Miami’s resurgence over the past two weeks. I’m expecting lots of possessions tonight, which makes 25 a safe number to back the Heat’s leading scorer on tonight.
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Grizzlies vs Heat odds
Grizzlies vs Heat live odds
Grizzlies vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -4.5 (-110) | Miami +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis -190 | Miami +160
- Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies are 38-37-1 against the spread this year, with the Heat coming in with a similar 36-39-1 ATS mark on the season.
- Memphis won the first meeting this year against Miami, covering as a five-point favorite in a 125-91 win on March 15.
- The Over has a 43-31-2 advantage when the Grizzlies have played this year, as well as a slim 39-37 edge in Heat games.
- Miami is playing to an average total of 219.6 ppg on the season, while Memphis is averaging a total of 239.3 ppg.
Grizzlies vs Heat trend
The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Heat.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Date | Thursday, 4-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, Max |
Grizzlies vs Heat latest injuries
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