The entire NBA remains abuzz over the Luka Doncic-for-Anthony Davis trade from this weekend. Rightfully so, given how shocking and absurd that trade was.
But with none of those players available yet, the Lakers and the Mavericks are a bit shorthanded tonight, creating value in particular NBA player props.
Specifically, shots will be missed and rebounds will be available across my NBA picks for Tuesday, February 4.
Best NBA player props today
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Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365) -
Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365) -
Ivica Zubac Over 12.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
NBA player props for February 4
Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
The instinct may be to target a points prop on the Dallas Mavericks roster after the blockbuster trade of Luka Doncic. With Anthony Davis not yet available, someone in the Dallas rotation has to score, right?
Instinct is wrong in that Doncic has not played since Christmas, anyway. And Maxi Kleber was taking only 3.8 shots per game. Dallas’s rotation will not change much tonight. Perhaps there is a different mentality, a bit adrift psychologically, but the actual players remain the same.
Looking more recently, the Mavericks are also without Dereck Lively II, out with an ankle stress fracture. Since Lively left the lineup, Daniel Gafford has averaged 10.6 rebounds and cleared this prop in six of nine games.
Speculation suggests Joel Embiid will return tonight, but he will almost certainly be on a minutes restriction. Furthermore, some rust should create a few more missed shots.
Combine some Embiid misses with the Mavericks’ overall shock — understandable — and Gafford should have plenty of chances to clean up as he has been excelling at since Lively’s injury.
Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
This is simply a bad matchup for Scottie Barnes. The New York Knicks are effectively designed to limit physical wings like Barnes. Karl-Anthony Towns is quick enough to provide decent defense on them. Josh Hart is so excellent on the glass that he cuts into their totals. And OG Anunoby is an ideal defender for them.
And for one last thought, Tom Thibodeau’s slowed pace cuts into a physical wing’s usual advantages. The Knicks rank No. 21 in pace in the last month, compared to the Toronto Raptors’ No. 15.
Fewer possessions alone should spark doubt in Barnes’s rebounding prop, a modest number he has fallen short of in three of his last six games.
But trying to collect rebounds around Towns and Hart is the biggest reason to doubt Barnes’s rebounding prop. Towns is corralling more than a fifth of available rebounds when he is on the court, and Hart’s rebounding style will directly conflict with Barnes’s moments.
Ivica Zubac Over 12.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Lakers absolutely won this weekend’s shocking trade. No one sane will argue that. But it may have weakened their roster this season.
That is not the thought many expect. Adding Luka Doncic to the roster should improve someone’s championship odds, right? But what if adding Doncic means the roster has no viable post presence?
LeBron James is now Los Angeles’s best and arguably only rebounder. Rui Hachimura’s 9.1% rebounding rate (compared to Anthony Davis’s 19.7%, for context) is next in the Lakers’ rotation.
Doncic and Maxi Kleber can both help this cause, but the fact of the matter is, that opposing big men should now feast against Los Angeles. And that starts with Ivica Zubac tonight.
The Los Angeles Clippers big man already clears this prop regularly, doing so in 11 of his last 22 games. Playing against a lineup without anyone able to box him out should make it 12 of his last 23.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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