An 11-game NBA slate requires long thought about where to place your usual NBA prop bets. Looking through the schedule, a few spots stick out more than others, largely dictated by role players.
My NBA picks do not flinch at the thought of betting on role players. The bets pay just as well, after all. Enjoy before tip on Wednesday, January 15.
Best NBA player props today
Mark Williams Over 12.5 points (+100 at bet365) 
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 threes (-155 at bet365) 
Klay Thompson Under 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Picks made on 1-15 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for January 15
Prop bet #1: Mark Williams Over 12.5 points
Mark Williams’ return from a preseason foot strain took until December. Some of that was logical caution. Rushing a 7-foot, 241-pound center back on a faulty foot would only lead to another injury. The Charlotte Hornets then continued with that caution, keeping his minutes below 20 for nearly four weeks.
But Williams’ minutes have now ticked up, and this prop has not adjusted appropriately. He has played at least 21:33 in each of his last seven games, peaking with a 31:20 showing to end December. In that stretch, Williams has cleared this prop in four of seven games.
Focus on the three in which he fell short: Two were the two lowest-minute tallies of this stretch, 22 and 21 minutes, scoring 12 and nine points, respectively. Both of those came in relative blowouts. It would be a surprise to see such tonight when the Hornets face the Utah Jazz.
If Williams nears 30 minutes — he has averaged 27.8 minutes in his last five games — then it should be trusted he will cruise past this prop. Until sportsbooks properly adjust to Williams’s growing workload, there will continue to be value in his points prop.
Prop bet #2: Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 threes
Something clicked when the Minnesota Timberwolves moved Donte DiVincenzo into the starting lineup, going 4-1 ever since the rotation change. Maybe it was that Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle initiate the offense more when in lineups without Mike Conley, allowing the likes of DiVincenzo to space the floor.
Maybe it was simpler than that. Maybe DiVincenzo just needed that vote of confidence.
In the 19 games before he stepped into the starting lineup, DiVincenzo attempted at least seven 3-pointers in just five contests. In his five games as a starter, he has taken at least seven 3-pointers in each one, making at least three in four of the five starts and hitting 40% of his attempts.
This is the shooter the Timberwolves traded for, and reminding DiVincenzo of that has been a needed uptick for Minnesota. He now faces a Golden State Warriors defense giving up 38.4% on opponent threes in the last month, ranking No. 25 in the NBA.
Prop bet #3: Klay Thompson Under 13.5 points
It is an underrecognized NBA scheduling emphasis: Squeeze in as many games as possible in the month before the All-Star Break, so the final third of the season looks spaced out. Casual fans do not notice how many back-to-backs there are while they focus on the NFL playoffs, and the NBA justifies this crunch to itself by insisting the week off in February recharges the players.
It damages the product right now. As frustrating as that is, it also provides betting value.
There is little other reason for the Dallas Mavericks to be playing a back-to-back and their seventh game in 15 days. Drag this stretch back to the week before Christmas and tonight will be the Mavs’ 14th game in 28 days, with another eight days involving travel.
That wear shows up on veterans like Klay Thompson, who turns 35 next month and is trying to carry another few seasons out of worn-out knees.
On the second night of five back-to-backs so far this season, Thompson has fallen short of this prop four times, with two of those starts failing to exceed single digits. He has averaged 10.6 points in those moments.
Thompson logged 21 minutes last night, scoring only eight points in a blowout loss to the Nuggets, so putting faith in him to reach his season average of 14.2 points against the New Orleans Pelicans feels bold.
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NBA odds today
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