Talk about a jam-packed night of NBA action. All 30 teams are in action tonight, which means a mountain of NBA player props are at our fingertips.
Luckily, I’m here to summit that mountain and bring you my three best bets for today, which include continuing to fade LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Lakers on the glass for the foreseeable future.
Here are my NBA picks for Wednesday, February 12.
Best NBA player props today
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McCollum o22.5 pts (-115 at bet365) -
Sengun o10.5 rebs (+105 at bet365) -
Collins o7.5 rebs (-120 at bet365)
NBA player props for February 12
CJ McCollum Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)
It’s always fun to try and take advantage of sportsbooks following trades they may not have completely adjusted for. For instance, let's look at just how bad the Sacramento Kings are defensively after subbing in Zach LaVine for De’Aaron Fox.
I mean, the Kings weren’t great at that end of the floor to begin with (19th in defensive rating), but that number will always get worse when you have LaVine on the court. In the first four games since trading for LaVine, Sacramento ranks 24th in opponent field goal percentage and is allowing 121 points per game.
Luckily for the Kings, they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night. The Pels have been nothing short of a disaster this season, and are worse than the Kings at basically everything. But at the very least, you have to applaud the effort of CJ McCollum.
The Pelicans’ shooting guard is averaging 22.1 points per game while shooting a solid 38.1% from 3-point range. And with Dejounte Murray done for the year and Brandon Ingram now a Toronto Raptor, McCollum has to shoulder more of the scoring load.
He’s done just that over the last three games, averaging 26.7 points and shooting a ridiculous 58.3% from beyond the arc, including going for 31 points against this same Sacramento team last Saturday night.
McCollum should keep cooking against a Kings team that ranks next-to-last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Alpren Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
It feels like the Phoenix Suns are just never going to figure it out. They enter tonight’s matchup against the Houston Rockets having lost five of their last six games to fall to 26-27 for the season and into 11th place in the Western Conference — outside of the play-in spots.
Despite having two superstars in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the chemistry of this team just isn’t there and it’s showing up all over the stat sheet. One place in particular is on the boards.
Phoenix has the second-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA and ranks 24th in opponent rebounds per game. The Suns have tried to counter this by going ultra-big at times, starting Nick Richards and Bol Bol in recent games. But it hasn’t worked out yet, and with Houston being a Top-10 team in terms of rebounding rate, that has me looking at their rebounding props.
The player that stands out to me the most is Alperen Sengun. The Rockets' big man has been recognized for his great work this season, being named to his first All-Star team. Sengun is averaging 19 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game this season.
Sengun did leave the Rockets last game after just three minutes with a back issue but has practiced since and should be good to go tonight. If he’s on the floor, he’ll be cleaning the glass. His rebounds are up to 10.7 a night over his last 14 games and he's hit double-digit boards eight times over that span.
His rebounding prop for this one is a high 10.5, but this matchup at plus money has me firing on the Over.
John Collins Over 7.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Utah Jazz for the second straight game.
While you might not think there is much intrigue in a matchup that finished with a 132-113 final score in favor of the Lakers, I’m here to tell you I’m dialed into how the Lakers perform on the glass once again.
L.A. shipped out its best rebounder in the trade for Luka in Anthony Davis, who was averaging 12 rebounds per game. Even with Davis, the Lakers struggled on the boards, ranking 24th in rebounding rate.
Their plan to replace AD’s presence in the paint was to bring in Mark Williams in a trade from the Charlotte Hornets, but that fell through due to a failed physical from Williams. Now the Lakers don’t really have a big man effective at cleaning the glass on the roster.
Knowing that, I jumped on John Collins to go Over his rebounding prop in Monday’s matchup and he came through in a big way, grabbing 11 boards in the loss. I'm going back to the well with that bet tonight.
Collins is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game this season and his rebounding prop for this one is set at 7.5. Not only did he haul down 11 rebounds in the last game against the Lakers, he’s topped this number in nearly 60% of his games played this season.
Fading the Lakers on the boards will be a thing for me for the foreseeable future. So, let’s take Collins to go Over once again, and I may even sprinkle on his alt rebounds of 10+ at +350.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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