It might seem strange to still be evaluating playoff contenders this late in the season, but there’s a bunch of NBA teams with questions to answer over the final few weeks, and tonight’s six-game schedule should provide more clues.
What’s going on with the Los Angeles Lakers? Are the Los Angeles Clippers emerging as a postseason sleeper? Have the Phoenix Suns finally woken up?
Amid that uncertainty, the player props market is still cranking out tasty odds, so check out my top three NBA picks for the March 26 slate.
Best NBA player props today
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Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 points + rebounds (-110 at bet365) -
Kawhi Leonard Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 26
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 points + rebounds (-110 at bet365)
The past week has taken some of the air out of the balloon for this Lakers team, with a three-game skid bumping L.A. down to the No. 5 seed. The onus is on Luka Doncic and LeBron James to right the ship, but they can count on Dorian Finney-Smith as an uber-reliable role player alongside them.
Finney-Smith has been one of the bright spots lately as a factor on both ends of the floor, and I’m grabbing the Over on this combo prop, with an O/U line of 11.5 that feels too low.
For a start, he’s scored 14+ points in three of his past four contests, making 11 of his 21 3-pointers in that span, and he’s a lock for a stack of wide-open looks again tonight against the Indiana Pacers. Make no mistake, he could cash the Over on points alone.
Though Finney-Smith’s work on the glass can be more erratic, he’s averaging 4.1 RPG this month, and he pulled down seven boards in Monday’s loss to the Orlando Magic. The Lakers need a response here, and it’s hard to see them keeping things close on the scoreboard without another do-it-all effort from Finney-Smith.
Kawhi Leonard Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Clippers put together a stretch of 8-1 basketball before a weekend loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. We’ve been here before, with Kawhi Leonard looking sharp and ready to make some noise in the playoffs.
It’s fair to wonder whether Kawhi can keep playing like this and stay healthy as his minutes climb, but I’m buying into the upside, in the short term at least. I like the Over on 22.5 points tonight against the New York Knicks.
Leonard is averaging 24.9 PPG in March and has poured in 25+ points in four of his last six outings. There’s urgency for L.A. to finish on a high note to boost its chances of avoiding the play-in, and Ty Lue knows it — Kawhi’s workload has jumped to 36.5 MPG this month.
With James Harden pulling the strings, Leonard can pick his spots to take over. While the Knicks can throw OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges at L.A.’s top dogs, I’m picking Leonard’s strength and savvy to cash the Over here.
Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)
There’s every reason for the Boston Celtics to take a cautious approach with Jayson Tatum’s ankle injury — and that opens the door for Jaylen Brown to soak up some extra touches here against the Phoenix Suns.
Brown is coming off three quiet outings, which is probably why this points prop line isn’t sitting in the mid-20s, but I’ll gladly accept it. This is an ideal chance to get his mojo back, and he’s still gone past this number in five of his last 10 contests.
He also torched the Suns in the teams’ two meetings last year, including a 37-point explosion at TD Garden on 14-for-23 shooting. There’s a path to 20+ shots again tonight for Brown against a Phoenix defense that allows 115.6 PPG (20th in the league), and he scored 26 points against the Utah Jazz earlier this month when Tatum sat out.
The Suns have won four in a row, but I’m not ready to trust in that streak. The defensive flaws are still glaring, and few teams can punish them better than the Celtics.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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