Raptors vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee's Best Holds Down Home Court

The Toronto Raptors are still deciding which direction their season's headed in. After a spirited couple of weeks, they lost in embarrassing fashion to former coach Dwane Casey and the doormat Detroit Pistons Friday night. 

Instead of a chance to regroup, the Raps get a date with the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks less than 24 hours later.

Find out if they can bounce back as we break down our Raptors vs. Bucks NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, January 15.

Raptors vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Bucks opened as -7.5 favorites for this matchup and have been bet down to -7 or -6.5 as of late Saturday morning. The total hit the books at 221.5 and is now available at 221 or 221.5, depending on your provider.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Milwaukee -6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 221 (-110)
• Best bet: Middleton Over 34.5 p+r+a (-106)

Predictions made on 1/15/2022 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN3, BSWI

Raptors vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Raptors: Khem Birch C (Out), Gary Trent Jr. SG (Out), Goran Dragic PG (Out). 
Bucks: Jrue Holiday PG (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in Raptors' last seven road games and 7-1 in Bucks' last eight games as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Bucks.

Raptors vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

So, yes, Toronto lost to the Pistons by double-digits last night. Even though they fired him four years ago, Dwane Casey still summons his players' best against the Raptors, winning five in a row despite Detroit, well, really sucking. 

Expect the Raptors to use that as motivation tonight against the Bucks, who themselves will be looking to avenge a defeat Toronto dealt them 117-111 on January 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game — the Raptors won't be so lucky this time around. 

The one edge Toronto does have going for it is that All-Defense pest Jrue Holiday is again sidelined, meaning Fred VanVleet can hopefully get back on track. VanVleet, the reigning East Player of the Week, was shooting the lights out, scoring 30+ in five of six games prior to a 13-39 swoon in his past two.

That's about where the good news ends for Toronto. 

With Khem Birch out, the Raptors have taken to starting Pascal Siakam at center because their other bigs are too inconsistent and get bodied on the glass. I'm not sure what Nick Nurse thinks Siakam's going to accomplish when Antetokounmpo begins asserting himself in the post, but the results aren't going to be pretty. 

Giannis can be the single most dominant post player in the league when he so chooses, and against a roster weaker than wet paper inside, we can bet that's where his efforts will be focused. Antetokounmpo can consistently force attention from multiple defenders, and has an army of good shooters (Milwaukee's No. 8 in 3-point percentage) around him to punish helpers.

Giannis' mere presence gives Milwaukee an immediate edge on the glass, and the Bucks are the better-rated team on both sides of the ball, boasting the NBA's fifth-best net rating over their past ten games. 

Toronto took a deflating loss in a different city last night. Its three best players all logged between 37 and 42 minutes. It's in the early stages of a five-game road trip, and it remains to be seen if Fred VanVleet will consistently channel last week's level of play. 

The Bucks are rested and have the matchup edge. Don't count on the Raptors strolling into town and using them as a get-right spot.

Prediction: Milwaukee -6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Bucks can impose on either side of the ball in this matchup, and with Holiday out and the clear impetus to abuse Toronto inside with Giannis, we feel like it's more likely to be on offense. 

The Raptors' wavering performance on offense is tough to trust, especially against a team with a sound ethos and great rim protection. But the Raps are quietly the NBA's eighth-best offense over the past two weeks, averaging 109.9 ppg despite still playing at one of the NBA's slowest paces. 

Milwaukee, for its part, is second in the NBA in scoring (117.7 ppg) over that same span, and is far more likely to impose its Top-10 pace on Toronto than the other way around. 

With the Bucks forcing the issue, this shouldn't be a difficult total to surpass, especially after being bet down a couple points from this morning. 

Prediction: Over 221 (-110)

Best bet

Khris Middleton's playmaking is one of his more underrated attributes, and the swingman has repeatedly stepped up when Milwaukee's been hit with absences. 

With Holiday out, Middleton will get a boost to his assist numbers, as well as the requisite rebounds and points he racks up at very consistent rates. PG George Hill is less of a ball-stopper, so expect increased usage all-around from Khris Kross.

After Giannis starts murdering the Raptors in the paint and they're forced to send extra help his way, Middleton should have all the more room to operate as Toronto's increasingly-less-organized defense rotates against the swing. 

Middleton's points+rebounds+assists market sits at 34.5 tonight, a number he's topped in all three games since Holiday went down, including his minutes-limited outing in Milwaukee's demolition of Golden State. 

Count on it happening again here tonight. 

Pick: Khris Middleton Over 34.5 points+rebounds+assists (-106)

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