Raptors vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Holiday Burns Toronto From Deep

The Toronto Raptors’ roller coaster season continued after they pulled out a 123-121 overtime victory against the New York Knicks on Monday afternoon. The Raps have won four of their last five but opposing NBA front offices are waiting with bated breath to see if Masai Ujiri blows the team up.

For now, their focus shifts to tonight’s opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee is dealing with its own set of inconsistencies.

With that said, tt will be laying some moderate chalk at home in a matchup where both teams will be playing the second part of a back-to-back. Does have value as an underdog, or will the favorites prove to be too much?

I break down this Eastern Conference clash and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. Bucks.

Raptors vs Bucks best odds

Raptors vs Bucks picks and predictions

The last time the Bucks and Raptors played back on January 4, it wasn’t pretty. And that’s putting it nicely. Milwaukee won an ugly yet intriguing game 104-101 in overtime — more on that game later — but one thing about that matchup is that the Bucks played that game without several key players, including point guard Jrue Holiday.

Holiday continues to be a stud — not only on defense — but he's also averaging 18.8 points on 38.2% shooting from 3-point range while contributing with 7.4 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game.

Holiday has also been scorching the mesh from beyond the arc recently as well. Milwaukee's guard is draining an awesome 45.1% of his 6.4 threes per game over his last eight games, and he’ll have a great chance to stay hot against this Raptors team.

Toronto has been known for an aggressive and smart defense the last couple of seasons, but it certainly looks like the team has taken a step back in recent months. Over the last 15 games, the Raptors rank 19th in defensive rating. 

Part of that is because they are leaving too many guys open on the perimeter and not getting hands in shooters' faces. As a result, they rank 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage over that same 15-game stretch.

Holiday has hit three or more threes six times over his last eight games, so getting the Over 2.5 at +125 in this matchup looks like a great value.

My best bet: Jrue Holiday Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+125 at PointsBet)

Raptors vs Bucks spread analysis

OK. Back to that ugly, yet fascinating meeting between the Buck and Raps back on January 4. The first half of that game was arguably the worst half of basketball two NBA teams had played in all season. 

That game included 25 points combined in the first quarter, and Toronto shot just 33% from the field and 20% from 3-point range. The Raptors played solid defense for most of the game until Milwaukee pulled away in the second half. 

Toronto trailed 90-69 with 3:50 left in the fourth, then, something crazy happened. The Raps went ballistic and stormed all the way back before falling in overtime. It was truly an insane game, but that probably isn’t as likely again.

That’s because there is a big difference in tonight’s matchup. That difference is no Giannis Antetokounmpo for Milwaukee, as the former two-time MVP is resting a sore knee. Sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly, moving the Bucks from 5.5 to 2.5-point home favorites.

But even without Giannis, I would be cautious about backing the Raptors in this matchup.

For starters, just like in that last game against Milwaukee, Toronto continues to prove it is an unreliable shooting team. Sure, guys like Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. can get hot, but it ranks dead last in effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. 

Mix in a defense that is not playing at the level we’re used to and the fact the Raps are just 6-13 on the road this season, and it’s enough to keep me away from the spread in this one.

Raptors vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total in this matchup is interesting as hell. At 222 it is just a touch below the 223.5 it was the last time these two teams met — and that game featured Giannis.

That January 4 meeting started so badly for both teams that Under bettors would have only had to start sweating if the game had gone to triple overtime.

As I’ve mentioned a lot over the last month or so, the Raps are just not a good shooting team. Even without Giannis, the Bucks still have plenty of length and solid defenders to make life hard. Milwaukee ranks sixth in scoring defense and fourth in opponent field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the Bucks' offense has been stunningly bad considering the team features one of the best players on the planet. Milwaukee ranks 24th in offensive rating this season and will be without Giannis for this one. I would lean Under here.

Raptors vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Raptors and Bucks. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Bucks.

Raptors vs Bucks game info

Raptors vs Bucks key injuries

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