Raptors vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Miami Serves Up Hot Home Cooking

The Eastern Conference's top team will try to put a little space between itself and the competition Saturday night. 

The Miami Heat play host to the Toronto Raptors, putting a three-game winning streak on the line. They'll possibly be without their starting point guard, but the Raptors could be too. 

Does that make this a fair fight? Find out with our Raptors vs. Heat NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, January 29. 

Raptors vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Miami opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and the books have shaved that down to -3.5 as of late Saturday morning. The total opened at 207.5 and has been bet up to 208.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Heat -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Siakam Over 33.5 pts+rebs+asts (-115)

Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, BSSUN

Raptors vs Heat betting preview

Injuries

Raptors: Fred VanVleet PG (Questionable), Khem Birch C (Out), Goran Dragic PG (Out).
Heat: Kyle Lowry PG (Questionable), KZ Okpala SF (Out), Markieff Morris PF (Out), Victor Oladipo SG (Out). 

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.

Raptors vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

We asked about a fair fight in the intro. In short? Not likely.

Miami was the NBA's best net rating team at the beginning of the season, and now that it's almost fully healthy again, has resumed that perch at a league-leading mark (9.4) over the past 10 games. While the schedule wasn't particularly tough, that run did include a 23-point stomping of the NBA-best Phoenix Suns without Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo.

It also included a 104-99 win over the Raptors, who have been an up-and-down team of late, and pretty much all season. Oscillating inspiring wins (beating Milwaukee 103-96) with close calls (barely holding on against the Wizards, who are making their own season disappear) and flat-out duds (getting shit-kicked by the pitiful Pistons) doesn't inspire much confidence for bettors. 

And while the Heat have proven they can win without Kyle Lowry (5-1 straight up since he last played on Jan. 15), the Raptors rely way too much on Fred VanVleet (questionable) as both a stretch threat and initiator in their halfcourt offense to test one of the NBA's best defenses without him. Pascal Siakam should find it particularly difficult to barrel towards the hoop with his somewhat-predictable bag while Bam Adebayo roams the paint. 

Even if VanVleet plays, there's little to suggest Toronto's in the current form to keep up with one of the NBA's best teams. It ranks in the bottom half of the NBA on both sides of the ball over the past 10 games, sporting the NBA's very worst true shooting percentage over that span. 

Miami, conversely, is the NBA's top TS% team over the same sample, ranking No. 5 on offense and sixth in defense. The Heat have only lost one home game in January, where they're 14-9 ATS on the season. 

With a number of PG scenarios possible for tonight, it's safest to back the Heat. Even if VanVleet suits up, we don't hate this spread, but if he does sit, it's a home run. Miami's back-to-back is the only factor giving us pause, but with both contests at home, the Heat shouldn't be as weary as a road two-step. Back them to hunt dinos. 

Prediction: Heat -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This is a total we're not fussy about, to be completely honest. While these teams both profile favorably for Unders in most scenarios, this number is priced competitively: not too low as to seem like a trap, but not exactly a total we're thrilled about ducking Under. 

With that said, the Under is the safer play for a variety of reasons.

The first, obviously, is the Raptors' current shooting slump. That will only be exacerbated by VanVleet's potential absence, which will make Toronto try to puncture one of the NBA's best defenses without its leading scorer and best playmaker.

Likewise, Miami is less apt to push the tempo in transition without Lowry and is playing at the NBA's sixth-slowest pace over its last ten games. The Raptors? Dead last. And they'll eat up a lot more clock trying to find quality looks without VanVleet. 

Along those lines, with two slow-paced teams, we're far less likely to see one try and kick up the tempo, forcing the other's hand. This could very easily turn into a slog of a contest, and the Raptors will be hard-pressed to convert on their limited opportunities. 

Again, approach this with caution, but take the Under if you must. 

Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)

Best bet

VanVleet aside, another Raptor who's shown his mettle this month is Pascal Siakam, putting up a very robust 22.5/8.5/6.6 line for January and further quieting pundits who fraudulently claimed his regression after a slow start to the season.

Siakam's thus averaging 37.6 combined points + rebounds + assists for the month, and getting a 33.5 Over/Under for the market tonight. 

While we expect the Heat to make life difficult on Siakam defensively, there's simply too much opportunity with VanVleet possibly out and at best slightly hobbled. The Raptors would lean more heavily on Siakam both as a scorer and secondary playmaker, and he still snuck past this number against Miami last week despite only scoring 18 points. 

Siakam's 10-4 against this total in January and has been filling it up in a variety of categories like never before in his career. Count on him to make an impact tonight, win or lose. 

Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

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