A year ago, the Denver Nuggets used a dramatic Game 4 win on the road to then relish a Game 5 win against the Timberwolves, one driven by a transcendent performance from Nikola Jokic.
The Los Angeles Clippers should worry about that pattern happening again this week, with Jokic perhaps poised to take over tonight and thus find a 3-2 series lead.
My Clippers vs. Nuggets props start with faith in the best player in the world. Find out more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, April 29.
Best Clippers vs Nuggets props
Jokic o29.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Zubac o29.5 points & rebounds (-115 at bet365)- Westbrook u10.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Clippers vs Nuggets player props for April 29
Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic’s Game 5 in last year’s second round remains one of the best postseason performances in recent memory. He needed just 22 shots to score 40 points, handing out 13 assists for good measure.
He largely struggled — obviously speaking relatively there — against the Timberwolves in that series. Minnesota’s defense was designed to bother the then-defending champions.
But Jokic can be slowed for only so long.
That remains true, and it started to show in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers. The three-time MVP poured in 36 points and grabbed 21 rebounds. He willed Denver to the win.
Believing in him to recreate that again starts with recognizing this is the last long break in the round for Jokic. Three days off between games is an edge for a team with no bench, needing its superstar to probably play 43+ minutes for the fourth time out of five games.
Jokic is aware enough to recognize Game 6 is on Thursday and, if necessary, Game 7 will be on Saturday. A loss tonight would set up an uphill climb too steep for the Denver Nuggets.
The Joker will need to take matters into his own hands, just as he did a year ago.
Ivica Zubac Over 29.5 points & rebounds (-115 at bet365)
One of the best ways to try to bother Jokic is to make him work on the defensive end of the court. Ivica Zubac has done that in this series, averaging 18.75 points and 11.5 rebounds. Zubac remains underappreciated for his massive improvements this season, now being overshadowed by Jokic’s stat lines.
Zubac can do only so much on defense against Jokic. In Game 4, there were a few moments where Zubac played perfect defense, and it didn’t matter; Jokic simply made the shots.
Los Angeles should emphasize its own Eastern European big man on offense, an attempt to wear out Jokic just a touch.
Zubac was an efficient 9-for-14 in Game 4, scoring 19 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. An added workload does not worry him, so leaning on that tonight serves the Clippers on both ends of the court.
Russell Westbrook Under 10.5 points (-125 at bet365)
This prop might be rendered moot at tip. Russell Westbrook is officially questionable to play tonight thanks to the left foot inflammation that cost him all of Game 4 and most of Game 3.
Betting this prop despite that possibility is an outright acknowledgement of the pain Westbrook must have been in to play fewer than nine minutes in Game 3 and then miss all of Game 4. Say what you want about the 16-year veteran, but he has never shied away from high stakes or playing in pain.
To effectively miss two playoff games, Westbrook had to be in genuine and compromising pain. Logically, he still will be tonight. But knowing him, he is going to try to play.
If Westbrook is limited, then falling Under this points prop should be a default. If he leaves the game early, then the value of this number will be rather obvious.
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